Market Overview for Zcash/Tether (ZECUSDT): 24-Hour Technical Breakdown

• ZECUSDT declined 3.3% in 24 hours, forming a bearish momentum with a low at 48.18.
• Volatility expanded after 20:00 ET, with volume spiking above 2,000 ZEC during the selloff.
• RSI reached oversold territory (38.2 Fibonacci level), but price failed to rebound above 50.33.
• Bollinger Bands tightened before the 20:00 ET break, suggesting a potential breakout.
• A key support zone emerged around 48.29–48.55, with a critical test pending on the next move lower.

The Zcash/Tether pair (ZECUSDT) opened at $50.33 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET, peaked at $51.00, and bottomed at $48.18 before closing at $48.36 at 12:00 ET. Total volume traded was 31,614.3 ZEC, with a notional turnover of approximately $1,587,671 (based on weighted averages). The pair experienced a bearish reversal, marked by a large bearish candle from 04:15 to 04:30 ET and a sustained decline that accelerated after 19:45 ET.

A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 04:15–04:30 ET, signaling increased bearish conviction. A long lower wick appeared at 06:45–07:00 ET, suggesting a failed attempt to rally above 48.87. The 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart crossed below the 20-period line, confirming a bearish bias. The daily 50-period MA sits well above the current price, reinforcing a longer-term downtrend.

MACD turned negative after 20:00 ET, with a bearish crossover between the signal and line, indicating declining momentum. RSI dipped below 30 during the selloff, pointing to oversold conditions, but the failure to close above 49.21–49.38 levels suggests exhaustion may not yet be complete. Bollinger Bands showed a tightening phase between 18:00–19:45 ET before a sharp break to the downside, suggesting a potential continuation of the move. The price closed near the lower band, reinforcing bearish momentum.

A key Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level sits at 49.09–49.21, and the 61.8% level is around 48.29–48.55. Volume spiked during the 04:15–04:30 ET and 06:45–07:00 ET periods but failed to confirm a strong reversal. A divergence between price and volume suggests weak buying interest. The next 24 hours may see further testing of the 48.29–48.55 support zone, with a potential follow-through decline if that area fails.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy focuses on identifying key candlestick patterns—specifically bearish engulfing and long lower wicks—within a 15-minute timeframe. These patterns are confirmed by bearish MACD crossovers and RSI readings below 30. The hypothesis posits that a combination of these signals, occurring within a 30-minute window, could generate a high-probability short trade with a stop-loss placed above the most recent swing high and a take-profit at the nearest Fibonacci level. The current session aligns with this framework, as the bearish engulfing pattern at 04:15–04:30 ET, alongside RSI hitting oversold, suggests a potential short signal with defined risk parameters. However, the lack of strong follow-through in subsequent candles and the divergence in volume imply caution in relying solely on this setup.