Market Overview: Yearn.finance/Tether (YFIUSDT) – October 8, 2025

• Price dropped from $5444 to $5298 in 24 hours, with a bearish reversal bias in late hours.
• Volatility expanded in early hours, followed by a contraction and consolidation.
• RSI indicated oversold conditions by the end of the period, suggesting potential bounce.
• Volume spiked after the initial 15-minute window, hinting at short-term interest.

Overview and Key Metrics

The YFIUSDT pair opened at $5431 on 2025-10-07 at 16:00 ET and closed at $5291 on 2025-10-08 at 04:15 ET, with a high of $5466 and a low of $5283. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 128.45 BTC, and total turnover reached approximately $693,594 (using average price and volume). The pair experienced a bearish 2.56% decline over the 24-hour window, with the most aggressive move occurring post-00:00 ET.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed bearish pressure, with a key swing high forming at $5466. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared at $5449–$5445, signaling a short-term reversal. A long-legged doji at $5442–$5440 hinted at indecision, while a bearish continuation was reinforced by the descending triangle formation from $5444 to $5283. Key support levels emerged at $5370 and $5320, with resistance at $5435 and $5465. The breakdown below $5320 marked a potential shift in sentiment.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below the 20 and 50 EMA, reinforcing short-term bearish momentum. The 50 EMA on the daily chart crossed below the 100 and 200 EMAs, suggesting a longer-term bearish bias. The breakdown below the 50 EMA in the early hours of October 8 confirmed a key bearish trigger.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line in the early morning hours, confirming bearish momentum. The histogram showed a widening bearish divergence. The RSI reached an oversold level of ~30 by 04:15 ET, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. However, the RSI remained below 50, indicating that the broader trend remains bearish.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded in the first two hours of the session, with price reaching the upper band at $5466 before collapsing into a contraction. From 00:45 ET, the bands tightened, with price oscillating within a narrow range until the final 30-minute window, where it broke lower. The final close at $5291 was below the lower band, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Volume & Turnover

The initial 15-minute candle had the highest volume (10.16 BTC), followed by a sharp drop. Volume remained relatively low for the next two hours but picked up again after the 00:00 ET candle, where a large-volume bearish move occurred. Notional turnover aligned with price action, with the largest turnover seen during the early hours. No clear volume divergence was observed, but the move below $5320 was confirmed by a modest volume increase.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying the 61.8% Fibonacci level to the swing high ($5466) and swing low ($5283), the 61.8% retracement was at $5336, which acted as a key support level. Price found rejection at this level twice but ultimately broke through in the final hours of the session. The 38.2% level at $5388 held briefly but failed to offer significant resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy focuses on using a 20-period EMA crossover with a 15-minute timeframe to capture short-term trends in volatile altcoins like YFIUSDT. A long signal is triggered when the price crosses above the 20 EMA, and a short signal when it crosses below. Stop-loss and take-profit levels are set based on recent Fibonacci levels and key support/resistance. Given the bearish crossover seen at the start of October 8 and the confirmation by the breakdown below $5320, a short strategy would have been triggered. The RSI’s entry into oversold territory suggests a possible exit or trailing stop may be warranted, though the broader bearish trend remains intact.