Market Overview for yearn.finance/Tether (YFIUSDT) – 2025-09-21

• YFIUSDT dipped from $5385 to $5313 in 24 hours, closing at $5311 after a volatile pullback.
• Strong bearish momentum emerged after 19:00 ET with a key breakdown below 5345.
• Bollinger Bands contracted midday before expanding, signaling rising volatility.
• Volume spiked during the 19:00–20:30 ET sell-off, confirming bearish price action.
• RSI hit 29 near 08:00 ET, suggesting oversold conditions and potential short-term bounce.

The pair opened at $5385 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET and closed at $5311 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-21. The high reached $5399, while the low was $5291 during the session. Total volume traded was approximately 104.32379, with notional turnover amounting to $550,388.02.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern shows a clear bearish bias, with a breakdown of the 5345–5360 support range occurring in the late evening session (ET). A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed at 19:00 ET, confirming a shift in sentiment. A large bearish candle at 09:30–10:00 ET (YFIUSDT: 5335 to 5317) acted as a key short-term trend catalyst. A doji at 09:15 ET marked a brief pause after the sell-off, but the bearish pressure continued.

Moving Averages & MACD

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages remained bearish, with price consistently below both. The 200-period daily MA is likely still above current levels, suggesting medium-term bearish bias. The MACD crossed into negative territory in the 19:00–20:00 ET timeframe, with bearish divergence evident in the histogram. Momentum remains weak but could stabilize if price consolidates above 5300.

RSI & Bollinger Bands

RSI dipped to 29 by early morning, indicating an oversold condition, though a bounce is likely to be short-lived unless volume confirms strength. Bollinger Bands showed a period of contraction around 01:00–02:00 ET, followed by a sharp expansion, suggesting renewed volatility. Price has spent the majority of the session inside the lower band, emphasizing bearish dominance.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased sharply during the 19:00–20:30 ET sell-off, confirming the breakdown of key supports. Turnover spiked at 09:30–10:00 ET as price moved from 5335 to 5317, reinforcing bearish conviction. However, volume declined after 12:00 ET, indicating potential exhaustion. A divergence between price and volume may suggest the need for a pause or reversal in the near term.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels on the 15-minute chart highlight key psychological levels. The 61.8% retracement of the 5313–5388 move is at $5356, which may act as a short-term resistance or support depending on volume. On the daily chart, the 38.2% level at $5315 is currently being tested, with potential bearish continuation likely if volume fails to confirm a rebound.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy for YFIUSDT could involve entering short positions on a breakdown below key Fibonacci levels (e.g., 5345–5340) with a stop just above the nearest 15-minute high. The 15-minute MACD and RSI divergence can be used to confirm momentum and oversold conditions for potential countertrend bounces. This aligns with the observed breakdown pattern and volume confirmation, making it a viable short-term bearish strategy.