Market Overview for XVSUSDT – October 4, 2025

• XVS/USDT fell 1.64% over 24 hours amid declining volume and bearish momentum.
• Key resistance at 6.92 failed to hold, triggering a pullback to 6.65.
• Volatility expanded, with price dropping below Bollinger Band midlines.
• RSI indicates oversold conditions, suggesting a possible bounce.
• Large bearish candle on 22:15 ET (16,450 volume) marks a key pivot point.

Venus/Tether (XVSUSDT) opened at $6.92 on October 3, 2025, at 12:00 ET and traded as high as $6.98 before plunging to a 24-hour low of $6.63. It closed at $6.68 at 12:00 ET on October 4. Total volume over 24 hours was 241,097.32 units, with notional turnover reaching $1,641,320. The price action suggests a breakdown from key resistance levels with bearish momentum in control.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart revealed a bearish breakdown from the 6.88–6.92 consolidation range, which had acted as a key resistance cluster earlier in the day. A large bearish candle at 22:15 ET (16,450 volume) marked a decisive rejection of 6.88, sending the pair into a freefall. Notable bearish patterns include the engulfing candle at 22:15 and a morning doji at 00:15 ET as a bearish continuation signal. The 6.65–6.70 zone appears to be the next potential support cluster.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were below price most of the session, but as the decline accelerated, the 50 SMA crossed below the 20 SMA, confirming a bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 EMA cluster formed a tight bearish alignment, with price well below all three, signaling a continuation of the downward trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained in negative territory for much of the session, with a bearish crossover and diverging histogram during the early decline. RSI dropped into oversold territory below 25 during the final hours of the 24-hour period, hinting at a potential near-term bounce. However, RSI divergence has been weak, and momentum has not shown signs of reversal, suggesting a test of the 6.65–6.70 support is likely.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded as the pair fell below the 20-period lower Bollinger Band, with the width of the bands increasing during the 22:15–05:00 ET timeframe. The price spent much of the session in the lower half of the band, indicating strong bearish pressure. A contraction in the band width earlier in the session was followed by a sharp breakout to the downside, reinforcing the bearish thesis.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 22:15 ET candle (16,450 volume) as the price broke below 6.84, confirming the breakdown. Total notional turnover increased to $1,641,320, with much of the activity concentrated during the 22:15–02:30 ET timeframe. However, a divergence appeared between price and turnover in the final hours, as turnover slowed despite continued price declines, suggesting possible exhaustion at lower levels.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 6.84–6.98 swing, the 6.90 level acted as an initial resistance, but failed to hold. The 6.87 (38.2%) and 6.84 (50%) levels were briefly tested before the breakdown. The 6.65–6.70 zone corresponds with the 61.8% retracement and could act as a short-term floor for the pair.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves entering short positions on the breakdown of key support levels (e.g., 6.84, 6.80) with a stop just above the recent swing high (6.92–6.94). A trailing stop or exit at key Fibonacci levels (e.g., 6.65, 6.70) could be used to lock in gains or manage risk. Given the bearish momentum and RSI oversold conditions, a partial reversal trade could also be considered at the 6.65–6.70 zone, with tight risk management. The recent volume and price action provide a strong foundation for testing this setup over the next 24–48 hours.