Market Overview for XRPJPY: Volatility and Downtrend Confirmation

• XRPJPY declined 5.8% in the last 24 hours, closing at 432.56 after a sharp drop from a 15-minute high of 446.96.
• Key resistance at 444.03 was breached and retested, followed by a bearish continuation below 440.08.
• RSI and MACD both signal bearish momentum, with RSI trending into oversold territory.
• Volume spiked during the 17:30–18:45 ET rebound before sharply declining on the breakdown.
• Price is now near 61.8% Fibonacci support of the 10/9 swing, with potential for further downside.

XRPJPY opened at 438.3 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET and closed at 432.56 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET, hitting a 24-hour high of 446.96 and a low of 428.0. Total volume traded over the period was 1,146,868 contracts, with notional turnover reaching ¥494,342,639.24. The sharp decline and bearish momentum suggest short-term vulnerability.

Structure & Formations

Price formation on the 15-minute chart shows a strong bearish bias, particularly after the candle at 2025-10-08 173000 confirmed a breakdown from key resistance at 444.03. A long upper shadow followed by a bearish engulfing pattern reinforced the reversal sentiment. A doji formed at 2025-10-09 001500, signaling exhaustion in the short-term downtrend, but was quickly broken by bearish follow-through. Key support levels identified include 436.8 and 432.6, which appear to have functioned as short-term floors. The 10/9 swing low at 428.0 suggests a potential target if the bearish move continues.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have been trending lower, with the price falling well below both. The 50-period line is currently at ~436.5, and the 20-period is near 438.2, confirming the bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period MAs are all in a descending configuration, with price under all three, indicating a strong downtrend.

MACD & RSI

MACD has remained in negative territory throughout the session, with a bearish crossover confirmed on October 8 around 17:30 ET. The histogram has continued to contract, suggesting that bearish momentum is waning, but the RSI suggests otherwise. The RSI has fallen into oversold territory (30–40 range), but has not triggered a reversal. A reading of 32 at the close indicates further downside is still possible, though a reversal may occur if the RSI rebounds quickly.

Bollinger Bands

Price has spent much of the day inside the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, with a volatility contraction observed between 19:00–22:00 ET. The recent rebound and breakdown were supported by a widening of the bands, which may suggest increased volatility ahead. Price is now sitting just below the 1σ lower band at ~432.3, which could act as a short-term support level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 17:30–18:45 ET rebound, with over 425,000 contracts traded, but sharply declined after the breakdown. Turnover spiked alongside this volume, confirming the bearish move. However, in the final 6 hours, volume and turnover have declined significantly, with price continuing lower. This divergence could signal a potential exhaustion of bearish pressure, though it may also reflect thinning liquidity.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 10/9 swing (428.0–446.96), the 61.8% level is at ~432.3, which aligns closely with the 1σ lower band and recent support tested at 432.44. The 38.2% level at ~438.2 has functioned as a key resistance-turned-support level but failed to hold. If the price breaks below 432.3, the next target would be the 428.0 level, where a bullish bounce may occur.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering a short position when price closes below a 20-period EMA after a confirmed bearish engulfing pattern forms at a prior resistance level. Stops are placed above the 50-period EMA, and targets are set at the 61.8% and 100% Fibonacci retracement levels of the most recent swing. This aligns well with the observed action on XRPJPY, particularly the breakdown from 444.03 and subsequent move into oversold territory. The strategy would have entered short on the 17:30 ET candle and exited at 10:00 ET on October 9 for a 5.2% gain. A trailing stop could have improved the risk-to-reward profile given the thinning volume in the latter hours.