Market Overview: XRPJPY – Rally, Reversal, and Volatility on October 24, 2025

• XRPJPY surged to a 24-hour high of ¥384.97 before retracting to ¥378.01, closing at ¥379.20
• Volume spiked to over 150,000 units during the rally, confirming bullish conviction
• RSI showed overbought conditions near 75, hinting at potential short-term pullback
• Bollinger Bands reflected increasing volatility with price at +1.2σ during the peak
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged during the 09:30–10:15 ET rally, signaling possible reversal

XRPJPY opened at ¥368.85 on October 23 at 12:00 ET and surged to a high of ¥384.97 by 14:00 ET on October 24, before retracing to a 24-hour low of ¥378.01. The pair closed at ¥379.20 at 12:00 ET on October 24, marking a 4.72% gain over the period. Total volume across the 24-hour window exceeded 1.2 million units, with a notional turnover of ¥432.7 million, reflecting strong liquidity and participation.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained in a bullish alignment, with price action consistently above both, suggesting sustained upward momentum. The 50-period MA acted as dynamic support multiple times during the day, particularly during pullbacks in the midday and early evening hours. The 200-period daily MA appears to be a key longer-term support level, currently sitting near ¥370, which could offer a buffer should the pair experience a deeper correction.

The MACD histogram showed a strong positive divergence during the rally, with the line surging above the signal line and widening into the day, indicating accelerating bullish momentum. RSI briefly entered overbought territory above 75 near the peak before moderating, suggesting that short-term overextending could trigger a pullback. Bollinger Bands expanded during the peak, with price reaching +1.2σ, pointing to heightened volatility. The upper band now lies near ¥385, a potential immediate resistance if bulls re-engage.

Volume and turnover aligned well with the price rally, with the highest spikes observed between 04:30 and 06:00 ET (October 24), where combined volume exceeded 100,000 units. The 15-minute candle at 09:30 ET displayed a bullish engulfing pattern, with a large body confirming a shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish. Key Fibonacci levels at 38.2% (¥378.86), 50% (¥377.92), and 61.8% (¥376.98) appear to be influencing the retracement after the peak.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the emergence of a bullish engulfing pattern at 09:30 ET and the strong alignment of moving averages and momentum indicators, a potential backtest strategy could involve entering a long position at the close of that candle (¥377.34) with a 3-day holding period. The recent volatility and alignment of RSI and Bollinger Bands suggest a favorable risk-reward environment, assuming confirmation occurs in the following candles. Using the XRPJPY ticker is essential for precise performance measurement; however, if data remains unavailable, a proxy such as XRPUSD may be used to simulate comparable market dynamics. I recommend confirming the correct ticker symbol or data source before proceeding with the strategy.