Market Overview: XRPJPY on 2025-10-31

• XRP/Yen traded 378.97 to 393.28, closing at 389.59 with volume up 111.9% from prior highs.
• Momentum accelerated on strong volume into the 16:00 ET close, with RSI hitting overbought territory.
• Bollinger Bands showed expansion in the final 4 hours, suggesting increased volatility ahead.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 12:30 ET, followed by a sharp rally that held into the close.
• Turnover spiked 65% above average in the final 3 hours, confirming strength in the recent breakout.

At 12:00 ET–1 on October 31, 2025, XRP/Yen opened at 379.09 and closed at 389.59, reaching a high of 393.28 and a low of 376.09. The 24-hour total volume was 2,314,161.0 units, with a turnover of approximately ¥867.5 million (calculated from OHLCV data). The price action shows a strong bullish reversal, supported by increased volume and a key candlestick pattern.

Structure & Formations

A notable bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 12:30 ET, with the open at 377.73 and the close at 376.56, followed by a sharp reversal the next candle. This pattern was confirmed by a strong follow-through move. Key support levels were identified around 376.09 and 374.8, with resistance at 381.55 and 383.21. A doji candle appeared at 01:00 ET, signaling a potential pause in momentum after an early morning rally.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have converged, indicating strong upward momentum. The 50-period MA acted as a dynamic support level during the early declines. On the daily chart, the 200-period MA remains below the 100-period MA, but the 50-period MA has crossed above both, signaling a positive shift in medium-term sentiment.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line just before 03:00 ET, confirming the bullish shift. RSI rose from 52 to 68 over the next 4 hours, entering overbought territory. However, a divergence was observed between price and RSI during the late morning dip, suggesting caution before further short-term gains.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply after 12:00 ET, with the bands widening as the price surged above the upper band. The 15-minute Bollinger contraction observed in the early morning gave way to a strong breakout. Price has remained within the upper third of the bands for most of the day, indicating aggressive buying pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over 110,000 units during the critical 15:30–16:00 ET hour, coinciding with the price reaching its high of 393.28. Notional turnover followed the same trend, surging 65% above average during this period. A divergence between price and volume was observed between 13:00–14:00 ET, where volume declined despite a modest price increase—potentially signaling a pause ahead.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 61.8% retracement level of the early morning decline (376.09 to 381.55) was tested at 380.58 and then broken decisively. On the daily timeframe, the 50% retracement of the recent correction (373.13 to 393.28) sits at 383.20, which the price has now exceeded.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtest used bullish engulfing patterns as entry triggers, a 2-day holding period, and no additional risk management parameters. Over the 2022–2025 test period, the strategy returned 0.92% annualized, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.04—suggesting a weak risk-adjusted return. While the pattern showed promise on October 31, where it formed at 12:30 ET, the overall strategy's performance appears limited by frequent small losses and infrequent large wins. Incorporating a stop-loss or extending the holding period might improve risk-reward characteristics, especially in a market like XRPJPY that can display high volatility and rapid reversals.