Market Overview for XRPJPY on 2025-10-11

• XRPJPY dropped sharply from 419.51 to 401.70 within a 3-hour window on heavy volume.
• Volatility surged with a 15-minute high of 421.39 and low of 367.83 during a large consolidation phase.
• Price found temporary support near 360.0 and rallied back toward 379.00 on increasing momentum.
• RSI and MACD showed divergence during the drop, hinting at potential bearish exhaustion.
• Total volume hit 3.48 million contracts, with the largest single 15-minute bar reaching 322,415 contracts.

XRP/Yen (XRPJPY) opened at 416.61 on 2025-10-10 at 16:00 ET, hit an intraday high of 421.39, and a low of 367.83, closing at 377.91 as of 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET. Total volume across the 24-hour window was 3.48 million contracts, with a notional turnover of approximately ¥1.43 billion (based on average price of ¥380.50).

Structure & Formations

Price exhibited a bearish breakdown from key resistance at 419.04, with a long lower shadow forming at 415.99 on a large bearish candle. A significant bearish engulfing pattern followed at 415.02, confirming the downtrend. A 382.61 high on the 9:15 ET bar acted as a temporary resistance, while price found support at 360.0–370.0 range for three consecutive hours. The final 4-hour consolidation saw a bullish reversal attempt, with a potential hammer forming at 373.83–376.01, but momentum remains mixed.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA showed a bearish crossover, with price below both averages for most of the 24-hour period. On the daily chart, XRPJPY is below the 200DMA, indicating a long-term bearish bias. The 50DMA and 100DMA converged near 400.0–405.0 during the breakdown, reinforcing the significance of the 400 level as a critical psychological and technical level.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained in negative territory for most of the 24-hour period, with a bearish divergence forming during the drop from 410.01 to 349.55. RSI bottomed at 22 near 349.55 and rose back to 50 at 370.0–380.0, indicating potential oversold recovery. However, RSI failed to break above 60 during the rally, suggesting limited upside momentum despite the volume increase. A bearish crossover in the MACD histogram signaled continued pressure around 370.0.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply during the 19:30–21:00 ET window, with price dropping from 410.01 to 376.43 within a 35-point range. Price moved outside the lower band during the 19:30–19:45 ET bars, indicating extreme bearishness. Following a consolidation phase, the bands contracted from 15 to 10 points between 03:00–06:00 ET, suggesting a potential breakout or reversal attempt. As of 12:00 ET, XRPJPY was trading within the upper half of the bands, indicating a return in volatility.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 19:30–21:00 ET breakdown, with two 15-minute bars registering over 320,000 contracts. The largest volume spike occurred at 21:00 ET (322,415 contracts), coinciding with a 42.6-point drop. Volume continued to rise during the 02:00–06:00 ET recovery phase, with price climbing from 360.0 to 379.81 on increasing notional value. A volume divergence appeared during the 06:00–09:00 ET rally, with price rising on decreasing volume, hinting at possible exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the key 421.39 high and 367.83 low, the 38.2% retracement level is at 394.24, the 50.0% at 394.61, and the 61.8% at 395.05. Price tested the 61.8% level during the 05:15–05:30 ET window but failed to hold. The 38.2% level at 379.81 was retested at 09:00–09:30 ET, with a bearish rejection observed. Daily Fibonacci levels from the 421.39 high suggest potential support at 385.00 and resistance at 400.00 as key areas to watch.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve using a combination of RSI divergence and volume expansion as a signal for trend continuation. For example, when RSI bottomed at 22 during the 19:45–20:00 ET drop and volume surged, it could have served as an early bearish confirmation signal. Conversely, a bullish reversal signal might occur if RSI rises above 50 on increasing volume while the price forms a bullish pattern like a hammer or a bullish engulfing at the 360.0–370.0 support zone. Incorporating a 50SMA crossover and a narrowing Bollinger Bands setup during consolidation hours could further refine entry and exit points for swing traders.