Market Overview for XRPJPY on 2025-10-03

• XRPJPY rose to 453.27 before retracting to 444.11, closing 452.74 at 12:00 ET.
• Price formed multiple bullish and bearish engulfing patterns near key support/resistance levels.
• Volume surged during the 19:00–20:00 ET rally and declined in the final 6 hours, hinting at fading momentum.
• RSI and MACD showed overbought levels near 450, followed by divergence between price and momentum.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the 19:00–20:30 ET range, indicating heightened volatility.

XRPJPY opened at 441.22 at 12:00 ET − 1 and reached a high of 453.27 before closing at 452.74 at 12:00 ET. The pair traded between 444.11 and 453.27 with a total volume of 1,773,828.1 units and a notional turnover of 807,482,952.7 Yen over 24 hours. Price advanced in a volatile pattern with clear consolidation and breakout attempts during the session.

Structure & Formations

XRPJPY found key resistance near 450 and 452.5, with bearish reversal candles forming around 450.77–449.37 and 449.64–448.64. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 19:00 ET, pushing price to a 24-hour high of 453.27. Key support levels were observed around 446.0–447.5, where the price consolidated multiple times. A doji appeared at 00:00 ET (447.26), signaling indecision after the overnight high.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, XRPJPY traded above the 20-period and 50-period SMAs for much of the session, indicating a short-term bullish bias. However, in the final 5 hours, price fell below both moving averages, suggesting a potential shift in momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 100-period SMAs crossed above the 200-period SMA, a bearish signal if price closes below the 50-period SMA at 448.5.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained positive for most of the session but began to trend downward as the 19:00 ET high was consolidated. RSI hit overbought levels above 70 during the 19:00–20:30 ET range, followed by a bearish divergence as prices pulled back while RSI dipped below 60. This suggests potential exhaustion in the upward move.

The Bollinger Bands expanded significantly between 19:00 and 20:30 ET, with XRPJPY trading near the upper band, indicating high volatility and potential for a pullback. The bands later constricted between 04:00 and 06:00 ET, hinting at a possible breakout or reversal. Price spent most of the session between the 1.5σ and 2σ levels, confirming a volatile but range-bound structure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 19:00–20:30 ET rally, peaking at 92,191.3 units per candle, and again at 06:00–07:00 ET. Notional turnover confirmed this, with a peak of 451.28 at 06:00 ET. In contrast, volume dropped off sharply in the final 6 hours, with prices closing near the 12:00 ET high. This suggests reduced conviction in the bullish move and possible exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 19:00–20:30 ET swing (453.27 to 444.11), the 61.8% retracement level was at 447.59. Price consolidated near this level for much of the session, suggesting it acted as a temporary support. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level from a recent lower low to the 19:00 ET high sat at 446.87, where price found support twice during the day.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy involving a long entry on a bullish engulfing pattern confirmed by a close above the 20-period SMA, with a stop loss at the most recent support and a take-profit target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level (447.59–449.64), would have captured the 19:00–20:30 ET rally. However, the strategy would have failed in the final hours due to price divergence and volume contraction, suggesting caution when entering longs without confirmation from multiple indicators.