Market Overview for XRPJPY on 2025-10-03

• XRP/Yen surged above 450 Yen, hitting 455.38 before consolidating.
• Strong volume and positive divergence in RSI indicate bullish momentum.
• 15-minute candlestick patterns show a bullish engulfing formation post-450 Yen support.
• Bollinger Bands show expansion, reflecting increased short-term volatility.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 450 and 447 Yen acted as key psychological barriers.

XRP/Yen (XRPJPY) opened at 438.02 Yen on 2025-10-02 at 16:00 ET, surged to a high of 455.38, touched a low of 438.02, and closed at 449.82 Yen on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET. The pair saw a total volume of 1,457,267.5 and a notional turnover of approximately ¥653,023,515.60 over the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick data reveals a strong bullish bias over the last 24 hours, particularly in the late afternoon and early evening hours. A notable bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 450.41 Yen following a consolidation phase, suggesting a shift in control to the bulls. Additionally, several higher time frame resistance levels, such as 450.0 and 447.0 Yen, were decisively taken out, reinforcing the likelihood of continued upward movement. The formation of a small bearish harami near the 445.0 Yen level hints at a possible short-term pullback but appears to lack conviction.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages show a healthy separation, with price consistently above both, indicating bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50 and 200-period moving averages are both aligned in a bullish formation, with XRP/Yen trading well above the 200SMA, a key indicator of strong upward bias. This alignment across multiple timeframes suggests a structural bullish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD for XRPJPY shows a strong positive divergence, with the histogram expanding in the positive territory, indicating growing bullish momentum. The RSI reached a high of 70, approaching the overbought threshold but not breaking through it. This suggests that while buying pressure is strong, it may not yet be overextended, offering further upside potential without immediate overbought risk. The RSI’s slow recovery after a dip to 56 in the early morning hours also indicates resilience in the bullish bias.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly in the last 6 hours of the trading window, reflecting increased volatility and stronger directional movement. The price has consistently traded near the upper band, especially between 19:00 and 21:00 ET, indicating overbought territory but also signaling strong conviction among buyers. The narrowing of bands earlier in the day suggests a period of consolidation before the breakout, providing a clean signal for trend continuation.

Volume & Turnover

The volume profile shows a sharp increase in the hours following the 19:00 ET time frame, with the highest volume recorded in the 19:45 and 20:00 ET candles, aligning with key price highs. Turnover also spiked in this period, reaching a peak of ¥41,022,743.10. Notably, the volume in the 00:00 and 01:00 ET candles was lower but still sufficient to support the continued price action. This suggests that the recent rally was not merely speculative but backed by substantial buying interest.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 438.02 to 455.38, we find that the 61.8% level (~445.45 Yen) acted as a key support zone, and price bounced off this area with strong volume. The 78.6% level (~452.26 Yen) was also a critical point of consolidation before the final push. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement level of the larger move from prior lows aligns with the current price level of ~449.82, indicating a potential zone of continuation or consolidation.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtesting strategy suggests entering a long position on XRPJPY when a bullish engulfing pattern is confirmed at a key Fibonacci retracement level, such as 445.45 Yen, and when the RSI remains above 50 with a positive divergence in the MACD. This strategy would also require a stop-loss just below the previous low of 444.11 and a target at the next Fibonacci extension level of 453.30. Given the current price action and technical alignment, this strategy appears well-positioned for a potential continuation of the upward trend, provided volume remains supportive and no significant overbought conditions develop.