Market Overview: XRP/Yen (XRPJPY) – 24-Hour Candlestick Analysis

• XRPJPY traded in a volatile 24-hour range, surging to 372.55 before retracing to 358.32.
• Momentum indicators signal overbought and oversold swings, suggesting potential mean reversion.
• Volume spiked during key bullish and bearish reversals, offering confirmation to price action.
• A strong bearish divergence formed between price and RSI in the final hours of the period.
• Key Fibonacci levels and Bollinger Band expansions suggest a period of high volatility and potential consolidation.

24-Hour Summary

XRPJPY opened at 351.28 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 372.55 on 2025-11-06 at 03:00 ET, before closing at 358.4 at 12:00 ET. Over the 24-hour period, the total volume amounted to 1,984,842.8 units, while total turnover (notional value) stood at 684,160,558.4 JPY. The pair displayed a clear pattern of volatility, with sharp surges and retracements throughout the session.

Structure & Formations

The price action over the 24-hour period revealed a strong bullish breakout in the early hours of 2025-11-06, followed by a bearish correction in the late morning. Notable candlestick formations included a Bullish Engulfing pattern around 03:00 ET and a Bearish Evening Star near 06:00 ET. The price found key support at 358.32 and resistance at 367.09. A doji formed near 361.54, indicating indecision and potential turning points.

Moving Averages and Momentum

Using a 20-period and 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, the pair showed multiple crossovers that indicated both short-term bullish and bearish momentum shifts. The 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA early in the session, signaling a bullish bias. However, by mid-morning, the 20-period MA dipped below the 50-period MA, reinforcing the bearish correction.

On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period MAs remained in a bullish alignment, but the 100-period MA showed a flattening trend, hinting at potential weakening momentum.

The RSI oscillated between overbought (70+) and oversold (30-) conditions multiple times, indicating a highly volatile and choppy session. A bearish divergence was observed in the final two hours, with RSI failing to make a new high as price did.

Volatility and Fibonacci Levels

The Bollinger Bands showed a clear expansion phase in the early hours as the price surged, with the bands reaching a width of over 5.0%. As the price corrected, the bands constricted, signaling a potential consolidation phase. The price hovered near the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the previous bullish move, indicating a key area of interest for traders.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked dramatically during the bullish breakout and bearish reversal phases, confirming the strength of the price action. Notable spikes occurred at 03:00 ET (volume: 224,896.5) and 06:45 ET (volume: 119,740.9), with turnover increasing in tandem. However, in the final hours, as the RSI diverged, volume began to wane, suggesting weakening conviction in the bearish move.

Backtest Hypothesis

The data highlights the potential of using candlestick patterns such as the Bullish Engulfing and Bearish Evening Star as entry signals, paired with RSI and Bollinger Bands to confirm momentum and volatility. A backtest using the "Bullish Engulfing" pattern, for instance, could use the closing price of the signal candle as an entry point and let the position run for a fixed 5-day period. Given the strong volume and RSI confirmations seen in this 24-hour window, these signals appear to have robust trade setup potential. Further, the use of Fibonacci retracement levels (e.g., 61.8%) can help identify potential stop-loss and profit-target zones. This combination of technical indicators and volume data could serve as a solid basis for a structured, rules-based trading strategy.