Market Overview for XRP/Yen (XRPJPY) – 2025-10-04

• XRPJPY declines to 441.80 at 12:00 ET, down from 453.27 high, with bearish momentum and low volatility.
• Price tested key support at 445.0 and rejected twice, forming potential bullish patterns.
• Volume spiked during the decline to 441.2, but no confirmation of short-term bottoming.
• RSI indicates oversold conditions at 30, while MACD shows weak bearish divergence.
• Bollinger Bands narrow late in the session, hinting at possible breakouts.

The XRPJPY pair opened at 451.28 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-03, reaching a high of 456.59 and a low of 441.2 before closing at 441.80 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04. Total volume across the 24-hour period was 1,483,959.5 units, with a notional turnover of 670,105,442.8 JPY.

Price action on the 15-minute chart showed a clear bearish bias, with a sharp drop from 456.26 to 441.2 between 17:15 and 18:30 ET on October 3rd. A potential bearish engulfing pattern formed during the decline, and price found support at 445.0, bouncing back to 446.52 before retreating again. The 445.0–446.6 range appears to be consolidating as a short-term pivot. The 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart sits at 446.1, below the 20-period at 447.3, indicating downward drift. Daily 50/100/200 EMAs are aligned bearish, with the 200SMA at 453.7 acting as a key resistance.

RSI hit 30 on the 15-minute chart at 01:15 ET, suggesting oversold conditions, but price has yet to confirm a reversal. MACD crossed below zero at 19:30 ET and has remained bearish, with a weak histogram indicating fading momentum. Bollinger Bands tightened around 03:00–04:00 ET, with a potential breakout forming after 05:30 as price drifted down to 441.80. Price has spent most of the session within the upper and lower bands, showing a relatively stable volatility environment. Fibonacci retracement levels from the 441.2–446.52 swing place 61.8% at 443.7 and 38.2% at 444.7, both of which were tested but not decisively rejected.

A potential short-term bullish scenario could develop if price holds above 444.0, with a target of 446.5–447.0. However, a break below 441.2 could accelerate the decline toward 437.5–438.5. Investors should monitor the 445.0 level closely, as a sustained close above this level may indicate a short-term reversal. Volatility remains compressed, so any breakout above or below key levels should be treated as a signal. Position sizing is recommended to manage risk given the high volume and potential for rapid swings.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions on a bullish breakout above the 445.0–446.6 consolidation range, with a stop-loss just below 444.0. A short trade could be initiated on a break below 441.2, with a stop above 442.0. Using the 20-period EMA as a dynamic support/resistance level, a crossover above it could confirm a bullish bias, while a move below could validate bearish momentum. Given the recent RSI oversold conditions, a reversal trade on a close above 445.0 might be justified if confirmed by rising volume and a bullish MACD crossover. This hypothesis would be best tested using a 15-minute chart over a 6-month period, with strict entry and exit rules to manage risk exposure.