Market Overview: XRP/Tether (XRPUSDT)

• XRPUSDT fell 7.5% in 24 hours, breaking below key support levels with high volume during the selloff.
• Momentum turned negative with RSI below 30 and bearish divergence in volume.
• Bollinger Band contraction preceded the drop, suggesting a potential continuation of the bearish move.

• Price formed bearish engulfing and shooting star patterns during the selloff.
• 20-period moving average on 15-min chart crossed below 50-period line, signaling bearish bias.

• Notional turnover spiked to $83.3M near 08:15 ET, confirming bearish breakout from prior resistance.
• Fibonacci retracement levels suggest 2.96–3.01 as likely support zones.

• MACD turned negative with bearish crossover and declining histogram, confirming bearish momentum.

XRPUSDT opened at $3.0376 on 2025-09-14 at 12:00 ET and traded between $2.9696 and $3.0659, closing at $2.992 as of 2025-09-15 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume totaled 86,826,513 XRP with a notional turnover of approximately $260.5M (at average $3.003).

The 24-hour chart exhibits a bearish bias with key support zones at 2.96–3.01 and resistance at 3.05–3.08. On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line, forming a death cross. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 05:30 ET, while a bearish divergence in volume and price confirmed the breakdown below 3.03. The RSI (14) dipped below 30, signaling oversold conditions, and MACD turned negative, with a bearish crossover.

Bollinger Bands showed a period of contraction before the selloff, followed by a strong expansion downward, suggesting increased volatility and a potential extension of the bearish move. The price traded near the lower Bollinger Band for most of the session, especially after 08:15 ET, where a large bearish candle with high volume confirmed the breakdown.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the most recent 15-minute swing (from 3.0659 to 2.9594) suggest 2.96 (61.8%) as a strong support area. Daily Fibonacci levels from the recent high of 3.0659 to low of 2.9594 also indicate 2.99–3.00 as a potential consolidation range. Volume-based analysis showed a clear spike during the 08:15–09:00 ET session, confirming the bearish breakdown.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtesting strategy involves entering a short position on XRPUSDT when the 20-period MA crosses below the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart and the RSI falls below 30. The stop-loss is placed above the recent swing high (3.05–3.06), and the target is the next Fibonacci support level at 2.96. This approach would have captured the recent breakdown with a risk-reward ratio of 1:1.5 based on the move from 3.06 to 2.96. Given the high volume and bearish divergence observed, this strategy could be effective in a continuation scenario, provided no major news or whale activity disrupts the trend.