Market Overview for XRP/Tether (XRPUSDT): 24-Hour Breakdown and Technical Outlook

• XRPUSDT drifted lower from 3.1363 to 3.0589 over 24 hours, with bearish momentum evident in declining RSI and MACD.
• A breakdown below 3.0902 low suggests 3.085–3.090 zone is key near-term support.
• High volatility in early morning ET saw volume surging past 2.3M, but turnover failed to confirm, hinting at weak conviction.
• Bollinger Bands widened mid-day, aligning with increased volatility, while RSI hit oversold levels, suggesting potential near-term rebound.

XRPUSDT opened at 3.1363 on 2025-09-13 12:00 ET, drifted to a high of 3.142, then closed at 3.0589 on 2025-09-14 12:00 ET. The pair posted a 24-hour low of 3.0542. Total volume for the 24-hour period reached 21.4 million, while notional turnover was approximately $65.4 million.

Structure & Formations

The price of XRPUSDT has shown a clear bearish bias over the last 24 hours, marked by a breakdown below key support at 3.0902. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged during the 04:15–04:30 ET window when price dropped from 3.0959 to 3.0762, confirming bearish momentum. The formation was followed by a continuation lower into the 11:45–12:00 ET window, where a bearish inside bar formed near 3.0589, suggesting potential short-term consolidation. A critical support level appears to have been reached in the 3.085–3.090 zone, with a potential reversal candle forming if price tests this area again.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs crossed in a bearish alignment around 3.115–3.120. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA (3.123), 100-period SMA (3.132), and 200-period SMA (3.138) are all above the current price, reinforcing the bearish bias. Price is now below all three major moving averages, which is a strong signal of trend continuation.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish in the early hours of 09-14, with the line dipping below the signal line and remaining negative. The histogram has been shrinking slightly, indicating that bearish momentum may be losing steam. The RSI has dropped into oversold territory below 30, which is a potential sign of a short-term bounce. However, RSI divergence is not yet strong enough to confirm a reversal, as price continues to trend lower despite the oversold reading.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded sharply in the early morning session (04:15–05:00 ET) as volatility increased. Price has since remained near the lower band, indicating that the bearish trend has enough momentum to hold. A close above the 3.1042 mid-band could signal a retest of key support and a potential bounce.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply in the 04:30–05:00 ET session, hitting over 2.3 million, but price continued lower, indicating weak conviction. Notional turnover was also lower than expected, suggesting a lack of large institutional buying. Divergence between price and volume in the late-night to early morning hours may indicate a potential near-term reversal, but confirmation is still pending.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the most recent 15-minute swing (high at 3.142 to low at 3.0762), the 38.2% level is at 3.1125 and the 61.8% level is at 3.0917. These levels may serve as potential reversal points if the downward trend slows. On the daily chart, Fibonacci levels from the recent high (3.142) to the current low (3.0542) show the 38.2% retracement at 3.101 and the 61.8% at 3.079, both of which could be watched for potential bounces or further declines.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy for this scenario could involve a bearish breakout strategy triggered by a close below the 3.0902 support level, with a stop above the 3.0944–3.101 zone. The 50-period moving average can act as a dynamic stop-loss level, while Fibonacci retracement levels offer key take-profit targets. Given the recent oversold RSI and shrinking MACD histogram, this strategy should also include a bullish reversal filter, such as a bullish engulfing pattern or a close above the 20-period SMA, to avoid false breakouts.