Market Overview for XRP/Tether (XRPUSDT) on 2025-11-03

• XRPUSDT declines sharply from $2.52 to $2.35 amid rising bearish momentum.
• Volatility peaks during the Asian session with a 5.5% move below the 20-period MA.
• MACD and RSI confirm oversold conditions, suggesting possible short-term rebound.
• Volume spikes during the selloff, indicating strong conviction in the downward move.
• Key support now at $2.35, with resistance retested near $2.40 on the 15-minute chart.

Price and Volatility Context

XRP/Tether (XRPUSDT) opened at $2.5052 on 2025-11-02 at 17:00 ET, and over the following 24 hours, it traded as high as $2.523 and as low as $2.2925, ultimately closing at $2.3570 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-03. Total traded volume reached 125.5 million XRP, with a notional turnover of approximately $285.9 million USD. The price action reflects a pronounced bearish bias, driven by a sharp correction in the Asian and European sessions.

Structure & Formations

The price action on the 15-minute chart shows a breakdown below key support levels at $2.45, $2.40, and $2.35. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around $2.45 at 15:30 ET, which confirmed the shift in sentiment. A doji appeared near $2.35 at 16:30 ET, indicating indecision but not reversal. The price currently appears to be consolidating near the $2.35 level, which now acts as immediate support, with $2.40 serving as the first resistance.

MACD and RSI Momentum

MACD lines are negative and widening, with the histogram showing growing bearish momentum. RSI has dropped below 30, indicating an oversold condition, but without a clear reversal signal yet. The divergence between RSI and price remains bearish; price is making new lows without RSI matching its pace, suggesting exhaustion may not yet be present. Momentum is still skewed to the downside, which could see the price testing the $2.30 level.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

The Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly during the selloff, with the 20-period moving average acting as a dynamic resistance. Price has been trading below the lower band since early afternoon, suggesting a high-volatility environment. A contraction in the bands has not occurred yet, implying that the current phase of heightened volatility is likely to persist for the next few hours.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked dramatically during the early part of the Asian session, reaching a peak of 9.18 million XRP at 15:30 ET. This coincided with the breakdown below $2.45 and the formation of a bearish engulfing pattern, indicating strong conviction among sellers. Notional turnover also surged during this period, reaching a peak of $21.7 million at 15:30 ET. The price and volume actions are aligned, with no major divergence observed, reinforcing the bearish narrative.

Backtest Hypothesis

A MACD-based 14-day “buy-and-hold” strategy on XRPUSDT has been backtested from 1 January 2022 to 3 November 2025. This strategy is triggered on every MACD Golden Cross, with trades held for exactly 14 days and no additional stop-loss or take-profit levels. The results indicate strong cumulative and annualized returns, though with notable drawdowns, especially during major bearish waves. The strategy highlights the utility of MACD signals in capturing medium-term trends despite the asset’s high volatility. This aligns with the current bearish momentum observed in the latest price action, suggesting that a Golden Cross would be unlikely in the near term.

Forward-Looking View and Risk Caveat

Given the current bearish momentum, XRPUSDT may continue to test lower levels in the next 24 hours, particularly if sellers maintain control near $2.35. A retest of $2.30 could follow if the support at $2.35 fails. However, a sustained rebound above $2.40 could signal a short-term reversal. Investors should remain cautious, as the market is currently in a high-volatility phase with no clear signs of exhaustion.