Market Overview for XRP/Tether (XRPUSDT) – 2025-10-09

• XRPUSDT experienced a bearish reversal from a high of $2.9228 to a low of $2.786 with a 13% pullback.
• Key resistance at $2.83–$2.85 and support at $2.79–$2.81 show defined volatility clusters.
• Volume spiked during the early morning bearish move but faded during the afternoon rebound.
• RSI indicates oversold conditions below 30 after the rebound, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands show a moderate contraction in late trading, hinting at a possible breakout.

XRPUSDT opened at $2.8662 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at $2.8024 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-09, with a high of $2.9228 and low of $2.786. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 60,663,835.2 XRP, with a notional turnover of $167.7 million in USDT.

The 24-hour candlestick pattern showed a bearish trend with multiple rejection zones between $2.90–$2.92 and $2.83–$2.85. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed at the top of the early session rally, confirming the reversal. A doji formed near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the morning swing, indicating potential indecision. Support at $2.79–$2.81 saw multiple tests, with price rebounding off the lower end of the Bollinger Bands in the afternoon.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart confirmed the downward trend, with price below both lines. MACD showed bearish momentum with a wide negative divergence in the morning session, followed by a slight positive twist in the afternoon. RSI bottomed below 30, signaling oversold conditions and the potential for a near-term bounce. Volatility, as measured by the width of Bollinger Bands, showed a moderate contraction in the latter half of the session, hinting at a consolidation period ahead.

Volume spiked during the sharp decline in the early hours, confirming bearish conviction, but faded during the afternoon rally, indicating weaker bullish follow-through. The lower volume during the rebound suggests a potential false break, though the price action has held above $2.79 in the last two 15-minute candles. Notional turnover mirrored the price action, with high activity during the morning bearish phase and weaker participation in the late recovery.

The price is currently hovering near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the morning high and appears to be testing the lower boundary of a potential descending triangle. A break above $2.83 could see a test of the 50-period MA at $2.85, with further resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of $2.86. A retest of the $2.78–$2.79 range may trigger a short-term bounce if bulls defend the 20-period MA and the Bollinger Band floor.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy involves entering a short position when price closes below the 50-period moving average on a 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss above the recent swing high and a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the most recent bullish leg. Long entries are triggered on a close above the 20-period moving average with a stop-loss below the prior swing low. This strategy aligns with the observed 24-hour reversal and could be tested on historical swing points between $2.78 and $2.92. Given current conditions, a short bias appears more likely, though a test of $2.78–$2.79 could provide a low-risk entry for a long setup if bulls manage to defend that level.