Market Overview for XRP/Mexican Peso (XRPMXN): Volatile 24-Hour Correction

• Price action shows a sharp drop overnight, ending at 44.90 MXN, down from a high of 55.00 MXN.
• RSI and MACD indicate oversold conditions, but bearish momentum remains intact.
• Volatility spiked during the 4:30–5:45 ET window as XRP/MXN fell ~15% on high turnover.
• Bollinger Bands show a sharp expansion, with price currently trading near the lower band.
• Notable patterns include a bearish engulfing and a long lower shadow in the final hour.

Market Opening and Key Levels

XRP/Mexican Peso (XRPMXN) opened at 47.31 MXN at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-13 and hit an intraday high of 55.00 MXN before falling sharply to 44.90 MXN at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-14. The 24-hour period saw a total volume of 1,813.0 units and a turnover of approximately 95,333 MXN.

Structure & Moving Averages

Over the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended lower following the sharp decline. On a daily basis, the 50/100/200-day moving averages are all in a descending alignment, reinforcing the bearish bias. Key support levels to watch include the 47.31 MXN (initial floor), 46.023 MXN, and 44.90 MXN, while resistance levels include 48.715 MXN and 48.31 MXN.

MACD and RSI Divergence

MACD remained bearish throughout the session, with a negative histogram and a crossover below the signal line. RSI dipped below 30 for a prolonged period, indicating oversold conditions, although this has not yet triggered a rebound. The RSI divergence suggests that while the asset is oversold, the momentum remains bearish, with potential for further downside unless buyers step in.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands saw a dramatic expansion during the late-night plunge from 55.00 MXN to 44.90 MXN, signaling a period of high volatility. Prices closed near the lower band, which may act as a short-term support. A retest of this area could lead to either a bounce or a break, depending on order flow.

Volume and Turnover Divergence

Trading volume surged during the sharp drop in the early hours of October 14, particularly between 04:30 and 05:45 ET, as XRPMXN fell from 55.00 to 44.90 MXN. This was accompanied by a sharp rise in turnover, confirming the strength of the bearish move. However, volume has since dried up, suggesting a lack of follow-through.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the 55.00 to 44.90 MXN move show key levels at 51.73 MXN (38.2%) and 48.25 MXN (61.8%). The 61.8% retracement level at 48.25 MXN appears to have held temporarily, but failed to generate a sustained rebound. The 44.90 MXN level aligns closely with the 100% retracement and may now act as near-term support.

Backtest Hypothesis

A pattern-driven short strategy based on Bearish Engulfing patterns was backtested over the same period. The strategy used a 20% take-profit, 10% stop-loss, and a 10-day maximum holding period to manage risk. Results revealed a negative annualised return with significant drawdowns, indicating that Bearish Engulfing alone may not be a reliable short signal in XRPMXN under current conditions. This aligns with the observed bearish momentum and lack of reversal signals in the technical landscape.