Market Overview for XRP/Mexican Peso (XRPMXN): Sharp Bearish Move and Rebound into Close

• XRP/Mexican Peso (XRPMXN) formed a sharp bearish reversal pattern with a low at 43.669 and a sudden rally in the final hours.
• Volume spiked to 326.5 at 13:30 ET, confirming a key support level and suggesting short-term reversal potential.
• RSI and MACD indicated oversold conditions, hinting at a possible bounce from 43.669.
• Volatility dropped sharply after 04:00 ET, then surged as price broke above 45.705 before closing near 45.705.
• Bollinger Bands showed a contraction early in the day, followed by a breakout in the final 6 hours.

Opening at 46.224 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET, XRP/Mexican Peso (XRPMXN) formed a bearish trajectory over the next 24 hours, falling to a low of 43.669 before closing at 45.705 on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET. The pair traded as high as 49.0 during a sharp intraday spike before consolidating. Total volume reached 3,025.8 over the period, while notional turnover stood at $148,148.35, indicating active but fragmented trading.

Structure & Formations

The price action formed a key bullish reversal pattern at 43.669, with a sharp 0.943-point rebound following a consolidation period. A strong bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 19:30 ET as the candle gapped down to 45.556 and closed at 45.556. Later, a large bullish engulfing pattern at 21:15 ET pushed the price to 49.0 before fading. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level aligned with 45.705—where the price closed—suggesting temporary stability. The pair found support at 43.669, indicating a possible short-term floor.

Moving Averages, MACD & RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were in a bearish crossover until 21:00 ET, when the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period, signaling a potential reversal. The daily chart showed the 50-period MA above the 200-period MA, suggesting a longer-term bullish bias. The MACD turned positive after 21:00 ET, aligning with the price rebound. RSI hit oversold territory at 29.8 at 04:00 ET and later rose to 55.4, indicating exhaustion of the bearish move.

Bollinger Bands & Volume

Bollinger Bands showed a tight contraction from 04:00 to 08:00 ET, followed by a sharp expansion as price moved above the upper band at 21:15 ET. The price closed near the upper band at 45.705, suggesting continued volatility. Volume spiked sharply at 21:15 ET (557.5) and again at 13:30 ET (326.5), confirming support and resistance levels. Turnover was lower during the consolidation phase but surged during the late-day rebound, showing order flow confirmation.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the price’s strong reaction at the 43.669 level and the confirmation from RSI and MACD, a potential backtest strategy could involve entering a long position on a close above 45.705 with a stop just below 44.5 and a target at 47.2. This aligns with the Fibonacci 61.8% level and the Bollinger Band upper boundary. A trailing stop could be used once the price surpasses 46.5 to capture continued upward momentum.