Market Overview for XRP/Mexican Peso (XRPMXN) as of 2025-10-25

• XRP/MXN traded in a tight range on 15-min chart, consolidating around 47.333 MXN by 12:00 ET.
• A bullish breakout occurred in late morning with a 3.4 MXN jump in a single 15-min candle.
• Volume spiked at 50.0 units in the 15:00 ET candle but remained largely dormant for most of the 24-hour period.
• RSI hovered near 50, indicating neutral momentum, while Bollinger Bands narrowed into a tight consolidation pattern.
• No major candlestick reversal patterns formed; price action appeared directionally neutral with a late push higher.

The XRP/Mexican Peso (XRPMXN) pair opened at 46.0 MXN on October 24 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 48.212 MXN and a low of 46.0 MXN, before closing at 48.212 MXN on October 25 at 12:00 ET. Total trading volume over the 24-hour period was 77.6 units, while notional turnover (volume × average price) showed a modest increase due to the late session’s price action.

Over the past 24 hours, the 15-minute chart shows minimal volatility for most of the session, with price action ranging between 46.0 and 47.333 MXN. A consolidation phase developed as Bollinger Bands compressed into a narrow range, suggesting low volatility and limited directional bias. However, after 14:00 ET, a sharp upward move broke the consolidation, with price rising by over 0.88 MXN on increased volume. This move appears to reflect a potential breakout, though further confirmation is needed for a sustained trend.

Momentum indicators like RSI remained in neutral territory throughout most of the session, fluctuating around the 50 level. This suggests that neither bullish nor bearish forces dominated until the late morning move. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were aligned closely near 47.3 MXN, supporting the idea that the pair was in a holding pattern before the breakout. The MACD line remained near the signal line, consistent with the lack of momentum direction until the final hours of the session.

The 15-minute candles show a consolidation phase into a tight range, followed by a sharp upward breakout. The 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels from the 46.0–47.333 MXN swing did not offer strong resistance, suggesting the market may be testing key levels for a potential directional shift. A breakout above the 48.212 MXN high could see further upward extension, while a pullback to the 47.333 MXN level could offer re-entry opportunities. Given the low volume during most of the session, the late move appears to reflect a concentrated buying effort, though sustainability remains untested.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest of the “Bullish Engulfing 3-Day Hold” strategy applied to the XRPMXN pair from 1 Jan 2022 to 25 Oct 2025 yielded a total return of -30.6%, annualized at -16.4%. The strategy underperformed the underlying asset, with an average trade return of -2.2% and a Sharpe ratio of -0.83. These results suggest that the mechanical application of the bullish engulfing pattern, without additional filtering or adaptive exits, may not be effective for this pair. Given the tight consolidation and recent breakout seen in the 24-hour data, integrating volume confirmation or trend filters—such as a rising 20-period moving average—may improve the strategy’s efficacy. A complementary use of RSI or MACD divergence could also help in isolating higher-probability setups.