Market Overview for XRP/Mexican Peso (XRPMXN): 2025-10-03 12:00 ET to 2025-10-04 12:00 ET

• XRP/Mexican Peso (XRPMXN) traded lower in a narrow consolidation for most of the 24 hours, with a sharp drop in the last 5 hours.
• Key support levels formed around 55.658–55.7, with a break below triggering a 3.5% correction to 54.369.
• Price action showed a bearish breakout pattern confirmed by declining volume and low turnover.
• RSI entered oversold territory, but volume failed to confirm the bounce, suggesting potential bearish continuation.
• Volatility surged during the drop, with Bollinger Bands expanding and price falling outside lower bands.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04, XRP/Mexican Peso (XRPMXN) closed at 54.369, down from an open of 56.393 on 2025-10-03. The 24-hour range was between 56.393 and 54.369, with total volume of 2,611.3 and turnover of 153,052.1. Price action showed long bearish shadows in the final hours, with a strong downward thrust confirming bearish momentum.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart displayed a clear bearish trend, with the initial 18 hours marked by low volatility and consolidation near 56.393. A sharp bearish reversal occurred after a large candle (2345–0000) printed a 0.35% drop and set a short-term support at 55.864. This level held for several hours before breaking decisively at 0200 ET with a massive 1992.8 volume candle, signaling aggressive selling. The price continued down to 54.369 by 1530 ET, forming a textbook bearish breakdown pattern with a valid stop above 55.658.

Moving Averages

Short-term (15-min) moving averages indicated strong bearish bias, with price remaining below both 20 and 50-period lines during the decline. On the daily chart, the 50 and 100-period MAs crossed bearishly, reinforcing a downtrend. The 200-period MA was still above current price, but with strong downward momentum, a test of that level could be expected in the next 72 hours.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned strongly bearish in the final hours, with a large negative histogram and a bearish crossover confirming the trend. RSI dropped into oversold territory in the last 5 hours but did not reverse; instead, price continued lower with a divergent volume pattern, suggesting further downside potential. The bearish divergence between RSI and volume implies that the selling pressure is not exhausting but rather intensifying.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the last 6 hours as the price broke below the lower band of the Bollinger Band. This expansion signaled increasing uncertainty and risk aversion. The price remains outside the bands, indicating a high-probability continuation of the trend unless a large bullish reversal forms with above-average volume.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply in the final hours of the 24-hour window, with the largest candle (0200 ET) showing 1992.8 volume and a 0.24 Peso drop. Notional turnover increased correspondingly, indicating broad participation in the bearish move. Divergence emerged between price and volume after the 55.658 level broke, where price continued lower despite a drop in volume—this could indicate a temporary pause in the trend rather than a reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the most recent 15-minute swing (56.393 to 54.369) shows key levels at 55.151 (61.8%) and 54.693 (38.2%). These levels could see increased activity in the next 24 hours, with 55.151 being a potential zone for a short-term bounce if volume picks up and buying interest appears.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described utilizes a combination of RSI divergence and Bollinger Band breakouts to identify high-probability bearish continuation trades. When price breaks below the lower Bollinger Band with a bearish RSI divergence and increasing volume, the strategy enters a short position with a target at the next Fibonacci level (38.2%–61.8%) and a stop above the 50-period moving average. Given today’s price action, the strategy would have triggered a short entry at 55.864 with a target near 55.151 and a stop above 56.153. This aligns well with the observed technical setup and validates the hypothesis.