Market Overview for XRP/Mexican Peso (XRPMXN) on 2025-09-19

• XRP/Mexican Peso declined from 57.235 to 55.49, ending the 24-hour period at 55.641 with a bearish bias.
• Price formed a long bearish trend with several pullbacks, but failed to find strong support above 56.709.
• Volatility increased after 17:45 ET with a sharp drop to 56.709 and again after 04:15 ET, reaching 56.0.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions briefly at 04:45 ET, but volume remained muted.
• Bollinger Bands showed contraction early and expansion during the sharp decline, indicating heightened risk.

XRP/Mexican Peso (XRPMXN) opened at 57.235 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET and closed at 55.641 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour high of 57.332 and a low of 55.49. The pair experienced a bearish trend, ending at a 24-hour low. Total volume was 2,300.0, and notional turnover reached approximately 127,000 MXN.

Structure & Formations

Price fell steadily from 57.332 to 55.49, forming several bearish patterns. Notable features include a bearish engulfing pattern at 17:45 ET and a long bearish trend from 21:15 ET to 04:15 ET. A key support level appears to be forming near 56.709, where the pair found brief consolidation. The price may retest this level in the next 24 hours.

Moving Averages & Volatility

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both trended downward, reflecting the bearish bias. The daily 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period moving averages likely confirm the broader bearish trend. Bollinger Bands showed contraction in the early hours of the session, followed by a sharp expansion after 17:45 ET, indicating increased volatility and potential for further downside.

Momentum & Overbought/Oversold Levels

The 14-period RSI reached an oversold level below 30 at 04:45 ET, suggesting a possible short-term rebound. However, the RSI remained below 40 for most of the session, indicating bearish momentum. MACD lines remained below the signal line, reinforcing the bearish outlook. No strong overbought signals were observed, and the momentum appears to favor further downside.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked at 17:45 ET, 22:15 ET, and 04:15 ET, corresponding with sharp price declines. The largest single-volume event occurred at 04:15 ET, where 26.7 units were traded. Turnover remained low until the final hours of the session, when it increased significantly. Price and turnover aligned well with the price drops, indicating valid bearish sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the major 15-minute swing from 57.332 to 55.49, the 38.2% level (56.36) and 61.8% level (55.91) may offer temporary support. The 61.8% level may be a critical area for a potential bounce, but failure to hold there could push price lower. Daily Fibonacci levels suggest 55.00 as a longer-term support target.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy using a combination of RSI, MACD, and Fibonacci retracements could be viable for short-term traders. The hypothesis involves entering a short position when RSI confirms oversold conditions and MACD remains bearish, with a stop-loss near the 61.8% retracement level. Given today’s price action, the 56.709–55.91 range may be tested, offering opportunities for confirmation of this strategy in the coming 24 hours.