Market Overview for XRP/Mexican Peso (XRPMXN) – 2025-09-17

• XRP/Mexican Peso traded in a narrow range with minimal volatility early before a sharp intraday move to 56.461.
• A pullback followed, breaking below 55.78 to 55.174, suggesting a potential breakdown in near-term bullish momentum.
• Volume spiked during the 19:00–20:30 ET window and again at 00:30 ET, with notable intraday range expansion.
• RSI and MACD showed bearish divergence during the late session, signaling potential for further downside.
• Bollinger Bands were in a tight range for the first half of the session, followed by a sharp expansion on the downside.

XRP/Mexican Peso (XRPMXN) opened at 55.667 on 2025-09-16 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 56.461 and a low of 55.174 before closing at 55.175 on 2025-09-17 12:00 ET. Total volume over 24 hours was 926.6, with a notional turnover of 50,721.3 (calculated from cumulative volume × close).

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart reveals a distinct bearish reversal pattern after the initial consolidation. A sharp bullish candle at 20:15 ET (from 55.553 to 56.461) was followed by a bearish engulfing pattern at 21:00 ET, confirming a potential trend reversal. A key support level emerged at 55.174–55.175, where price found a floor twice and closed. A prior resistance-turned-support at 55.553 also appeared to hold on the way down.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-EMA crossed below the 50-EMA early in the session, signaling bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-EMA is above the 200-EMA, indicating a medium-term bullish bias, though the recent price action may be testing that bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative and formed a bearish crossover in the afternoon, with a negative histogram expanding as bearish momentum increased. RSI crossed into oversold territory near 30 at 05:30 ET, but failed to bounce, reinforcing bearish sentiment.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands were in a narrow consolidation phase early in the session, with price moving within a 0.2 range. After 19:00 ET, the bands expanded sharply on the downside, with the close at 55.175 sitting near the lower band, indicating oversold conditions and potential for a short-term rebound.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 19:00 ET candle (225.0) and again at 00:30 ET (352.8), with the latter confirming a bearish breakdown. Notional turnover aligned with volume spikes, showing no signs of divergence. A quieter afternoon suggests a lack of conviction in the previous bullish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 19:00–20:15 ET swing, price pulled back to the 61.8% level at 55.303 before falling further. Daily Fibonacci levels suggest a 38.2% retracement at 55.79 as a potential short-term support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering a short position after a bearish engulfing pattern forms on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed just above the high of the engulfing candle. The target is set at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the most recent bullish swing. Given the bearish engulfing at 21:00 ET and a strong close near the session low, this pattern could offer a high-probability short entry. If confirmed, the 55.174 level may serve as a secondary stop or profit target.

Looking ahead, XRPMXN may test the 55.174–55.175 support zone again before potentially finding a near-term bottom. Traders should watch for a rejection at that level and a potential bounce toward 55.553. A break below 55.174 could trigger further downside to 55.00, but a retest of the 55.78 level may offer a short-term buying opportunity. As always, volatility remains a key risk, especially given the low volume in the afternoon.