Market Overview for xMoney/USDC (UTKUSDC)

Summary
• Price dropped 6.09% over 24 hours, closing at $0.01616 after a sharp selloff.
• Volume surged to 582,964.0 units, confirming bearish momentum.
• RSI near 30 indicates oversold conditions, suggesting potential for a rebound.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-11-04, UTKUSDC opened at $0.01647 and reached a high of $0.01647 before closing at $0.01616 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-05. The 24-hour period saw a low of $0.01521. Total volume traded was 582,964.0 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $9,102.59 (based on average price of ~$0.01562).

Structure & Formations

Price has been in a descending channel over the 24-hour period, with resistance forming near $0.01645 and support near $0.01521. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed after 21:30 ET on 2025-11-04, confirming a sharp bearish shift. Additionally, a morning doji near $0.01611 suggested a short-term pause in selling pressure.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average is currently bearish, crossing below the 50-period line. This "death cross" confirms the downward bias. Daily charts show similar bearish signals, with the 50-period line falling below the 200-period, indicating a broader downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has been negative throughout the day, with the histogram expanding during the selloff, confirming bearish momentum. RSI has fallen below 30, reaching as low as 26, indicating an oversold condition that could lead to a short-term bounce. However, without a strong close above the 50-line, a continuation of the downtrend is likely.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply during the selloff, with price dropping below the lower Bollinger Band. The band width widened as a result, suggesting increased uncertainty. Price is now near the lower band again, which could act as a temporary support level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the major selloff between 21:30 and 23:30 ET, with over 50,000 units traded in key bearish candles. Notional turnover increased in line with volume, confirming the strength of the sell-off. A divergence between price and volume is not currently present, which suggests the move may continue.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent 15-minute swings show a pullback near the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.01595, which has provided limited support. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level from the recent high near $0.01647 is at $0.01588—very close to the recent low, suggesting a possible floor for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest could focus on identifying the "Hammer" candlestick pattern within the 15-minute timeframe. Although the technical-indicator service raised an issue with the ticker symbol, we can use the raw OHLC data to manually identify Hammer candles. A Hammer typically appears in a downtrend and may signal a potential reversal or pullback. Given UTKUSDC's recent bearish action and oversold RSI, a Hammer forming at $0.01595 or below could offer a short-term entry point for a 3-day holding period backtest. This would help confirm whether such signals are predictive in this market.