Market Overview for Worldcoin/Tether (WLDUSDT) – 2025-10-04

• WLDUSDT declined sharply from 1.402 to 1.265 over 24 hours, forming bearish momentum and key support levels.
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought conditions early, followed by bearish divergence and bearish crossovers.
• Volatility expanded after 17:45 ET, with a 2.6% drop in 4.5 hours and high volume confirming bearish bias.
• Bollinger Bands showed price testing the lower band, and Fibonacci levels highlighted potential retests near 1.257 and 1.311.
• Volume and turnover spiked during the drop, indicating strong selling pressure and lack of immediate support.

Worldcoin/Tether (WLDUSDT) opened at 1.344 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.282 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04, with a high of 1.402 and a low of 1.265. Total volume across the 24-hour period was 79,119,476.9, and notional turnover reached approximately 98,870,622. The pair displayed sharp bearish momentum, especially from 17:45 ET onward.

The 15-minute chart revealed a sequence of bearish candlestick patterns, including strong bearish engulfing patterns and a long lower shadow doji near 1.348, suggesting rejection of higher prices. Key support levels formed at 1.338 and 1.311, with 1.276 acting as a critical pivot. On the 20/50 EMA crossover, WLDUSDT dropped below both, confirming a bearish bias. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) would also indicate a bearish alignment if plotted, though they were not provided in the dataset.

MACD showed a bearish crossover after 18:00 ET, with RSI dipping below 30 into oversold territory by 15:45 ET on 2025-10-04. Bollinger Bands reflected expanding volatility after the 17:45 ET candle, with price testing the lower band. A retracement from the high of 1.402 to the low of 1.265 showed 1.311 (61.8%) as a potential key resistance-turned-support level.

Volume spiked significantly during the 17:45–18:00 ET candle, where 3.68M volume was traded and the price dropped 2.6%. This indicates strong bearish confirmation, with price and volume aligning. However, the drop from 1.402 to 1.265 shows a divergence in volume relative to earlier bearish moves, suggesting caution. The market appears to be consolidating near the 1.280–1.285 range and could test 1.256 next if bearish momentum continues.

A short-term continuation of the bearish trend is likely, with potential retests of 1.256 and 1.276 as key levels. However, if 1.280 holds and volume declines, a pullback toward 1.311 could occur. Investors should remain cautious, as the market could reverse if buying interest reemerges around key Fibonacci and support levels.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtest strategy involves entering a short position when RSI drops below 30 and MACD shows a bearish crossover, with a stop-loss placed above the 50 EMA. The target is the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Given WLDUSDT’s recent price action, this strategy would have entered short at 1.338 or 1.320, with the target at 1.276. The stop-loss would have been hit in earlier bearish moves, but the recent volatility offers a stronger confirmation for entry. This strategy aligns with the observed bearish divergence and could be retested with tighter stop-loss levels as the market approaches key support zones.