Market Overview for Virtuals Protocol/Tether (VIRTUALUSDT)

• VIRTUALUSDT opened at 1.1017 and traded between 1.0863–1.1033 before closing at 1.0391.
• Momentum shifted to bearish with RSI below 30 and MACD in negative territory.
• Volatility expanded midday, with a sharp drop seen between 00:00–05:00 ET.
• Volume spiked during the selloff, but price-volume divergence hints at potential exhaustion.
• A key support level appears to have formed near 1.0391–1.0415, aligning with 50% Fibonacci retracement of the morning swing.

Opening and 24-Hour Summary

Virtuals Protocol/Tether (VIRTUALUSDT) opened at 1.1017 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as 1.1033 before plunging to a low of 1.0863 during the early hours of the morning. The pair closed the 24-hour period at 1.0391, marking a significant bearish move. Total traded volume over the period was 12,988,000, while notional turnover stood at approximately 13,799,200 USDT, with notable spikes observed during the late-night sell-off.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure reveals a strong bearish trend over the 24-hour period, with multiple long-tailed bearish patterns forming throughout the session. Key support levels appear to be consolidating around 1.0415 and 1.0391, which align with the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels from the 1.1017–1.0863 swing. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed around 03:00–03:30 ET, reinforcing the bearish bias. Additionally, the formation of a doji around 01:15 ET suggests indecision, though the subsequent price action confirmed bearish continuation.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average has fallen below the 50-period line, indicating a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is below both the 100- and 200-period averages, reinforcing a longer-term bearish structure. Prices remain under pressure from all three moving averages, suggesting continued downward momentum unless a significant reversal pattern or a breakout occurs.

MACD & RSI

The RSI indicator has fallen below 30, indicating oversold conditions, though it may not yet signal a reversal given the recent aggressive selloff. The MACD line has crossed below the signal line, with the histogram showing deep bearish divergence. This suggests that short-term bearish momentum is still intact. While these indicators may hint at a temporary pause in selling, a meaningful bullish reversal would require a closing above 1.0500 and a strong move above the 50-period MA.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was notably elevated during the early morning hours, with prices moving rapidly between the upper and lower bands. A contraction in Bollinger Band width occurred after the midday, suggesting a period of consolidation. Currently, prices are sitting near the lower band of the 20-period Bollinger Band setup, which aligns with the bearish momentum observed across other indicators. A breakout above the upper band would be a strong signal of renewed bullish conviction, though the current environment remains bearish.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged sharply during the early hours of the morning, coinciding with the price decline to 1.0863. However, the subsequent price action failed to maintain that momentum, indicating a possible exhaustion in the selling pressure. Notional turnover also spiked during this period, reaching a peak at 04:30 ET. The divergence between volume and price movement—especially in the last few hours—suggests a potential pause in the bearish trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the recent high of 1.1033 to the low of 1.0863 have provided critical price reference points. The 61.8% retracement level at 1.0919 and the 50% level at 1.0948 acted as temporary resistance and support during the morning. On the current leg down, the 1.0415 and 1.0391 levels align with the 50% and 61.8% retracements of the 1.0948–1.0391 decline, suggesting potential areas of consolidation or reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve using the RSI below 30 in conjunction with the MACD bearish crossover and price near lower Bollinger Bands as a signal to enter a short position. A stop-loss could be placed just above the nearest resistance level, such as the 1.0464–1.0500 range, while a profit target could be set at the 1.0345–1.0327 area. Given the current market structure, this strategy may have yielded positive results during the early morning selloff, but a robust risk management approach is essential due to the high volatility and potential for sudden reversals.