Market Overview for Viction/Tether (VICUSDT) – 24-Hour Candle Analysis

• Viction/Tether (VICUSDT) declined over 24 hours, closing near intraday lows with a bearish momentum shift.
• Key support tested near 0.2047, with RSI signaling oversold conditions and potential for a short-term bounce.
• Volatility expanded in the morning before narrowing, suggesting reduced conviction and accumulation.
• High-volume bearish divergence in the early morning indicates potential exhaustion in the downward move.

Viction/Tether (VICUSDT) opened at 0.2122 on October 8 at 12:00 ET and traded between 0.2174 and 0.2031 over the 24-hour period before closing at 0.207 at 12:00 ET on October 9. Total volume reached 1,329,517.06 and notional turnover stood at $277,684. The pair displayed a broad bearish bias, marked by a key breakdown and potential accumulation near support levels.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick chart reveals a series of bearish formations, including a large bearish engulfing pattern from 18:00 to 18:15 ET, which marked a turning point. A key support zone emerged around 0.2047–0.2054 after a consolidation period in the evening hours. This support was tested multiple times, with a bullish reversal candle observed at 08:30 ET, suggesting potential buying interest. A doji formed around 02:45 ET, indicating indecision, followed by a continuation of bearish pressure. Resistance remains intact above 0.2145, where sellers appear to have reasserted control after a brief attempt to reclaim higher levels.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line, confirming a bearish bias, while the 50-period line provided a minor resistance at 0.213–0.2135. On the daily chart, the 200-period moving average is at 0.2175, suggesting a long-term bearish trend. The MACD histogram has turned negative since midday, reflecting a loss in upward momentum. The RSI, currently at 28, is in oversold territory, implying a potential near-term bounce could be on the horizon. However, the strength of the bearish trend suggests any rebound may be short-lived.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands show an expansion in volatility during the early morning hours, with price swinging between 0.208 and 0.2125. By midday, volatility had contracted as price settled near the lower band, indicating a potential accumulation phase. A sharp sell-off in the early hours brought price below the lower band, confirming a bearish breakout. Price has since remained within the lower half of the bands, with the middle band acting as a dynamic resistance.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the early morning sell-off, with the largest single candle (12:15–12:30 ET) recording a volume of 32,464.41 and contributing $6,807 in turnover. This high-volume breakdown suggests a shift in market sentiment. Conversely, volume has declined significantly in the late hours, with accumulation visible near the 0.2047–0.2054 range. A divergence between price and turnover in the late morning suggests weakening bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels highlight key retracement levels from the recent high of 0.2174 to the low of 0.2031. The 61.8% retracement level is at 0.2122, which aligns with the initial open price and was a minor support in the morning hours. The 38.2% retracement at 0.2108 has acted as resistance, with price rebounding off it multiple times. A test of the 61.8% level may be expected if the pair recovers, but a failure to hold the 0.2054 level could extend the decline.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish structure, a potential backtest strategy might involve short entries on a confirmed break below 0.2054 with a stop just above 0.2074 (a key minor resistance and 38.2% retracement level). A target could be set at 0.2031–0.2047, where accumulation has been observed. This approach aligns with the bearish momentum and RSI’s oversold reading, which historically has shown potential for a temporary bounce rather than a reversal. The 15-minute chart’s moving average crossover and MACD signal further reinforce this bearish setup.