Market Overview: Viction/Tether (VICUSDT) 24-Hour Analysis

• Viction/Tether (VICUSDT) traded in a tightening range before breaking lower into oversold territory
• Price action suggested a bearish reversal with a large-volume break below key support at 0.1345
• Divergence between price and RSI indicated a potential reversal from aggressive selloff
• Volatility spiked in the last 6 hours, reaching a 24-hour high of 0.1368 before a sharp decline
• Bollinger Band contraction preceded the selloff, suggesting a potential break of trend direction

Viction/Tether (VICUSDT) opened at $0.1341 (12:00 ET - 1), reaching a high of $0.1368 and a low of $0.1308 before closing at $0.1318 (12:00 ET) on 667,614.59 volume and $84,950.39 turnover. The 24-hour session was marked by a sharp price decline from overbought levels to a near-oversold RSI reading. Key resistance levels emerged at 0.1345 and 0.1368, with support likely forming at 0.1318.

Over the last 24 hours, the price action displayed a bearish reversal pattern following a consolidation phase. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both sloped downward as the price broke below 0.1345. This move coincided with a divergence between the price and RSI, which peaked around 0.1368 and subsequently declined despite a continuing drop in price. This divergence suggests a potential reversal could be in the near-term cards.

The MACD line crossed below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum, while the RSI moved into oversold territory at 30, indicating a potential short-term bounce. The Bollinger Bands showed a notable contraction prior to the selloff, followed by a sharp expansion as the price dropped. Price found support at the lower band and bounced slightly, suggesting potential short-term stability, though the long-term trend remains bearish.

A strong volume spike occurred during the selloff in the 15:00–17:00 ET timeframe, indicating heightened selling pressure. This was accompanied by a drop in price and a large bearish candle on the 15-minute chart, suggesting conviction in the downward move. Fibonacci retracement levels from the 0.1368 high to the 0.1308 low suggest key levels at 0.1346 (38.2%) and 0.1326 (61.8%). The price is currently consolidating near the 61.8% level, indicating potential for a test of the next support or a pullback.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtesting strategy for VICUSDT could focus on detecting bearish reversal patterns, such as the Bearish Harami, during periods of volatility expansion and RSI divergence. This would involve identifying a large bullish candle followed by a smaller bearish candle entirely within its range, particularly when the RSI is above overbought territory (above 70). Entry could be triggered on the confirmation candle, with stop-loss placed above the high of the Harami pattern and a target aligned with the 38.2% or 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. Given the recent bearish momentum and divergence, this pattern could be a valid short-term entry signal, though confirmation from volume and price action is essential to avoid false signals.