Market Overview: Viction/Tether (VICUSDT) 24-Hour Analysis

• Price declined 11.6% from 0.2018 to 0.1512 on elevated volume and panic selling
• RSI hit oversold territory (<30) and MACD turned negative, signaling bearish momentum • Volatility expanded after 21:00 ET, with a sharp drop from 0.1973 to 0.1108 • Bollinger Bands widened significantly, indicating heightened uncertainty • Fibonacci 61.8% retracement at 0.1524 may offer initial support ahead of 0.1496

Viction/Tether (VICUSDT) opened at 0.2018 on October 10, 12:00 ET and closed at 0.1512 on October 11, 12:00 ET, hitting a high of 0.2031 and a low of 0.0535. Total volume reached 37.7 million VIC, with notional turnover at $5.5 million. The pair endured a sharp bearish reversal after 21:00 ET, with price dropping below key moving averages and entering oversold territory.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed bearish exhaustion during the 15-minute chart, with a long lower wick and bearish engulfing patterns from 21:15 ET onwards. A doji at 21:45 ET confirmed indecision before the sharp drop. Key support levels emerged at 0.1524 (Fib 61.8%) and 0.1496, while 0.1550–0.1570 appears as a likely short-term resistance.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below the 20- and 50-period SMAs, reinforcing bearish momentum. The daily chart shows price trading below 50-, 100-, and 200-period SMAs, indicating a continuation of a broader bearish trend unless a strong reversal occurs at 0.1524–0.1550.

MACD & RSI

RSI collapsed into oversold territory (<30) during the early morning hours and has shown no sign of recovery. The MACD crossed below the signal line with bearish divergence, confirming the downtrend. Momentum appears to be waning, and a rebound is likely to test 0.1531 for confirmation.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly after 21:00 ET, with price plummeting below the lower band. This expansion suggests heightened volatility and uncertainty, though a bounce back to the middle band (around 0.1531–0.1535) may provide temporary relief.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged dramatically during the 21:15–21:30 ET period, with over 5 million VIC traded. Turnover spiked as price dropped from 0.1974 to 0.1108. Divergence between volume and price is minimal, but the lack of follow-through buying above 0.1450 indicates weak demand.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the major 15-minute swing (0.1973 to 0.1108), 61.8% retracement aligns with 0.1524, a level already showing some buyers. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement sits near 0.1496, which may serve as the next line of support if the trend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering a short position upon confirmation of a bearish engulfing pattern below the 20-period SMA, with a stop-loss placed above the 50-period SMA and a take-profit at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. A long bias is considered only if RSI crosses back above 50 with volume confirmation. Based on the recent 24-hour data, this strategy would have triggered a short entry after 21:15 ET, with a stop-loss near 0.1550 and a target at 0.1496.