Market Overview for Viction/Tether (VICUSDT) – 2025-09-19

• Viction/Tether (VICUSDT) closed lower at 0.2282, down from 0.236 at the 24-hour open, with a high of 0.2392 and low of 0.2276.
• Volatility surged midday with a 0.2392 high, but reversed into a bearish consolidation phase late in the session.
• Volume spiked sharply during the midday high but diverged from price, signaling weakening bullish momentum.
• RSI entered oversold territory late, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound, though resistance remains intact at key Fibonacci levels.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the peak, signaling heightened volatility, while a bearish engulfing pattern emerged near 0.234–0.236 resistance.

Viction/Tether (VICUSDT) traded in a bearish range over the last 24 hours, opening at 0.236 and closing at 0.2282, with a high of 0.2392 and a low of 0.2276. Total traded volume reached approximately 573,238.16 units, with notional turnover of ~138.54 USD. The pair faced strong resistance between 0.234 and 0.236, which stalled multiple bullish attempts.

Structure & Formations

The price profile revealed a bearish engulfing pattern following the midday high of 0.2392, where the pair closed below the prior candle’s open, signaling a potential reversal. A key support level appears at 0.231–0.232, with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement overlapping this zone. A notable doji formed near 0.2326 in the early morning, signaling indecision. The price action suggests that buyers are reluctant to push above 0.235–0.236, a level that may contain further downside if not decisively broken.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA crossed below the 50SMA, forming a bearish crossover. The daily chart shows the 50DMA above the 100DMA and 200DMA, reinforcing the bearish bias on the longer time frame. The price has been trading well below these indicators, suggesting that the trend remains bearish, with no immediate signs of a reversal. A break above the 50SMA could indicate a short-term pullback, but it would not necessarily reverse the primary trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram turned bearish after the midday peak, with a negative divergence forming between price and the histogram. RSI dipped below 30 in the late hours, signaling oversold conditions and hinting at potential support around 0.228–0.230. However, this does not guarantee a reversal, especially if the bearish momentum remains intact. If RSI fails to rise above 50, it could confirm a continuation of the bearish trend.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the midday high, indicating increased volatility, before narrowing again during the afternoon as the pair consolidated lower. The price has recently moved below the lower band, suggesting that volatility is declining and that the pair may remain in a tight range for the near term. A breakout above the upper band would require strong bullish conviction, but the current structure does not support such a move without a reversal in the longer-term moving averages.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the 14:30–15:00 ET period, coinciding with the high of 0.2392, but dropped significantly afterward. This divergence between volume and price suggests that the recent rally may lack follow-through. Turnover also increased during the peak, confirming the significance of the 0.2392 level. If volume remains low during any subsequent rallies, it could signal weakness in buyer participation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing, the 38.2% retracement is at ~0.235 and the 61.8% at ~0.232. The pair tested both levels but failed to hold above either. On the daily time frame, the 61.8% retracement aligns with the key support of 0.231–0.232. These levels remain critical for the near-term direction. A break below 0.231 could extend the downside toward 0.2276 and possibly lower.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy hinges on using a combination of Fibonacci retracements and RSI divergences to identify potential turning points in the price action. Specifically, the strategy looks for RSI readings below 30 with a concurrent test of a 61.8% Fibonacci level as a buy signal. Conversely, RSI above 70 and a break below a 38.2% Fibonacci level could act as sell triggers. Given the recent test of 0.232 and the RSI in oversold territory, the conditions for a short-term bounce are met. However, without a strong move above the 50SMA or a convincing break of the 0.235 resistance, any bounce is likely to be corrective rather than a reversal.