Market Overview: Venus/Tether (XVSUSDT) – Strong Uptrend with Overbought Momentum

• XVSUSDT rose 5.44% in 24 hours, closing above 6.50 for the first time since early 2025.
• Strong volume surges coincided with price highs near 6.67, suggesting accumulation.
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought conditions, raising bearish reversal risks.
• Bollinger Band contraction occurred near 6.50, suggesting potential for a breakout.
• Fibonacci retracement at 6.49 acted as strong support, confirming trend continuity.

Venus/Tether (XVSUSDT) opened at $6.32 on October 4, 2025 at 12:00 ET and closed at $6.53 by the same time the next day. The pair reached a high of $6.70 and a low of $6.32 during the 24-hour period. Total trading volume was 98,915.73 XVS, and total turnover was $613,194.33, reflecting strong participation across price levels.

The 15-minute chart displayed strong bullish momentum, with a breakout above 6.50 followed by a consolidation at 6.49–6.55. Key support levels were identified at 6.49 (Fibonacci retracement 61.8%), 6.45 (20-period SMA), and 6.35 (psychological level). Resistance levels included 6.57 (50-period SMA), 6.61 (previous high), and 6.70 (intraday peak). A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 21:45 ET (2025-10-04), confirming a reversal after a brief pullback. A doji near 6.55 suggested indecision, hinting at potential short-term profit-taking.

Moving averages showed clear bullish alignment: 15-minute chart 20SMA and 50SMA were crossed and held above, with the daily 50SMA and 200SMA also in a bullish crossover. MACD was above zero, with a strong positive histogram, and RSI approached overbought territory (80) near 6.70, indicating possible exhaustion in the rally. Bollinger Bands were wide, especially during the 6.60–6.70 surge, signaling high volatility. Price settled near the upper band at the end of the 24-hour window, suggesting continuation of the upward move.

Fibonacci retracements from the 6.32–6.70 move identified 61.8% at 6.49 and 38.2% at 6.58 as critical levels. The price held above 6.49 during consolidation, reinforcing the bullish bias. Volume and turnover were highest during the 6.60–6.70 rally, with no significant divergence between price and turnover. This suggests that the bullish move was supported by strong conviction.

The next 24 hours may see a test of the 6.57–6.61 resistance cluster. A break above 6.61 could trigger a retest of 6.70. However, RSI near overbought levels suggests a pullback to 6.49–6.53 could occur. Investors should monitor volume for signs of exhaustion or confirmation of a breakout. A breakdown below 6.49 would invalidate the current bullish thesis.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy based on the 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern and overbought RSI divergence could have captured the 6.60–6.70 move. Entries were triggered on the close of the engulfing candle with a stop below the low and a target at 6.61. The 6.49 level acted as a strong stop in case of a reversal. Overbought RSI readings above 75 were used to exit at the peak. This combination of price action and momentum signals could have yielded a high-probability trade during the 2025-10-04 session.