Market Overview: Venus/Tether (XVSUSDT) 24-Hour Analysis

• Price fell sharply from $7.23 to $6.31 on 24-hour XVSUSDT
• Key support levels at $6.31–$6.35 showed partial buying interest
• RSI near 30 suggests oversold conditions; momentum turning lower
• Volatility expanded in early ET; volume spiked during sharp drop
• Bullish continuation depends on retesting of $6.31 with higher volume

Venus/Tether (XVSUSDT) opened at $7.20 on 2025-09-21 12:00 ET, peaked at $7.23, and closed at $6.31 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-22. Total volume for the 24-hour window was approximately 329,135.96, and notional turnover was around $2,381,271. The pair exhibited a sharp selloff during the overnight session in ET time, with a critical breakdown below key support levels.

Structure & Formations

The price structure showed a bearish breakdown through $6.98 and $6.85, with a large bearish engulfing pattern forming at $6.98–$6.91. After reaching a 24-hour low of $6.31, a series of smaller bullish hammers and doji patterns appeared near the $6.31–$6.35 range, indicating tentative short-term buying interest. A major support area now appears to be consolidating at $6.31–$6.35, while resistance sits at $6.44–$6.58. A retest of the lower end of this range with higher volume may signal a potential reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA both crossed below the price during the sharp drop, confirming bearish momentum. The 20SMA currently sits around $6.42, and the 50SMA around $6.49, both well above the current price. On the daily chart, the 50DMA has crossed below the 100DMA and 200DMA, reinforcing a broader bearish bias. A strong close above $6.67 (50DMA) could initiate a short-term bounce.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish as the pair broke below key support levels, with the histogram shrinking as the selloff slowed. The RSI reached 29 on the 15-minute chart, indicating oversold conditions, but momentum remains weak. If price holds above $6.31 and RSI climbs above 35, a short-term recovery could materialize. However, a close below $6.25 may push the RSI into a deep oversold zone, potentially triggering a bounce or further consolidation.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the early hours of ET, pushing price to the lower Bollinger Band, which currently sits near $6.31. The band width increased from ~0.03 to ~0.15, reflecting heightened market uncertainty. Price has since stabilized in a narrow range near the lower band, which may serve as a short-term support zone. A break above the middle band (currently around $6.45) would suggest a potential reversal, while a drop below the lower band could trigger further declines.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the breakdown below $6.98 and again at $6.33–$6.44, with the largest 15-minute volume spike at $6.33 (volume of ~39,546.7). Notional turnover followed the same pattern, indicating strong conviction in the downward move. However, volume has since decreased significantly during the consolidation phase near $6.31–$6.35. This reduced volume suggests a potential exhaustion of the bearish move, but without a clear increase in buying volume, a reversal remains speculative.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from $7.23 to $6.31, the 61.8% retracement level is at $6.82, which has already been rejected. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of a prior bear wave is near $6.45, currently aligned with the 50DMA. A failure to reclaim this level could push price toward the 78.6% retracement at $6.59. Meanwhile, the 38.2% retracement at $6.68 may offer a short-term bounce target if buyers return to that area.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves entering a long position when price breaks above a key Fibonacci retracement level (e.g., 61.8% or 78.6%) with a 15-minute bullish engulfing or hammer pattern, confirmed by a RSI move above 35 and increasing volume. A short position would trigger on a breakdown below a major support level (e.g., $6.31) with a bearish engulfing pattern and RSI dropping below 30, accompanied by a volume spike. Given the current setup near $6.31–$6.35, a long trigger may form if the price forms a bullish pattern with a close above $6.35 and a RSI move above 35, while a short trigger is already in place if a breakdown reoccurs with bearish confirmation.