Market Overview for Venus/Tether (XVSUSDT) on 2025-10-09

• Price action declined sharply from $7.70 to $6.78 on 24-hour XVSUSDT
• Momentum shifted bearish with RSI below 30 and MACD in negative territory
• Volatility expanded with widening Bollinger Bands reflecting high uncertainty
• Volume spiked during key breakdowns around $7.20 and $6.90
• Fibonacci retracement levels suggest possible near-term support at $6.80

Market Summary and Context

Venus/Tether (XVSUSDT) opened at $7.51 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET and closed at $7.05 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour high of $7.75 and a low of $6.71. Total volume reached 498,769.65 and notional turnover amounted to $3,608,962.63. The asset exhibited a strong bearish bias, with several key breakdowns and divergences observed.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a key breakdown structure below $7.30 on October 9th, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern at $7.31 to $7.06. A notable doji appeared around $6.95, signaling indecision and a possible short-term bounce. Strong support levels were observed at $6.90–$6.80, with prior resistance turning into support after the sharp decline.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are currently in a bearish crossover, reinforcing the downtrend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is approaching the 100-period MA from below, suggesting the bearish bias could extend. The 200-period MA remains significantly above current price levels, indicating a potential long-term bearish scenario.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD is in negative territory with bearish divergence, indicating weakening bullish momentum. The RSI is below 30, suggesting the pair is in oversold territory, but without a clear reversal pattern, the oversold condition may not result in a bounce. Divergence between price and RSI on the hourly chart further reinforces bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have significantly expanded as the price moved from the upper band to the lower band, indicating high volatility. Price is currently near the lower band, which could suggest a temporary oversold condition. However, without a clear reversal signal, the price may continue to test lower support levels.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during key breakdowns, most notably from $7.31 to $7.06 and from $7.09 to $6.80. This indicates strong bearish conviction. However, a divergence between declining price and decreasing volume at the $6.80–$6.71 range suggests reduced conviction and a possible near-term pause in the downtrend. Notional turnover also spiked during these moves, confirming strong participation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute swing from $7.75 to $6.71, key retracement levels suggest potential support at 38.2% ($7.18), 50% ($7.23), and 61.8% ($7.27). On the daily chart, the 61.8% level at $6.80 has shown strong price reaction, suggesting it could serve as a near-term floor.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described focuses on identifying breakdowns in structure and divergences in momentum indicators to enter short positions. The recent breakdowns at $7.31 and $6.80 align with these conditions, with bearish engulfing patterns and RSI divergence offering strong sell signals. A hypothetical short entry at $7.20 with a stop above $7.35 and a target at $6.75 appears well-supported by both price and indicator behavior. The strategy would benefit from filtering trades using volume spikes to confirm conviction and filtering out false breakdowns.