Market Overview for Vaulta/Bitcoin (ABTC) – 24-Hour Summary

• Price drifted sideways early before rallying to a 24-hour high of $2.76e-06 near 15:30 ET, closing +4.8% higher at 12:00 ET.
• Volatility increased during the rally with 4.3% range and a final 1.2% bullish candle confirming momentum.
• Volume remained mixed, with a sharp 15,000+ volume spike at 19:30 ET-1 pushing price to a short-term high.
• RSI edged into overbought territory near 68, suggesting caution for further unanchored gains.
• Bollinger Bands showed moderate expansion, with price near the upper band at 2.76e-06, indicating heightened volatility.

Vaulta/Bitcoin (ABTC) opened at $2.63e-06 on 2025-10-12 12:00 ET and closed at $2.76e-06 on 2025-10-13 12:00 ET, hitting a high of $2.76e-06 and a low of $2.64e-06. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 139,302.5 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $383.75 (based on average price).

Structure & Formations

ABTC formed a bullish continuation pattern as it pushed above key resistance at 2.73e-06 during the late morning trading session. A large bullish candle at 10:15 ET (2.74e-06) acted as a breakout trigger, followed by a consolidation phase. A potential support zone emerged near 2.68e-06—retested twice without breakdown—suggesting buyers remained in control. A bearish engulfing pattern at 19:30 ET-1 briefly challenged momentum but failed to reverse the trend, as price rebounded with increased volume.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA crossed above the 50SMA during the morning session, forming a golden cross, while the 50SMA moved from below to above the current price. This suggests short-term bullish momentum may persist. On the daily chart, the 50DMA is slightly below the 200DMA, indicating a mixed trend, but the 200DMA has been acting as a strong support level.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive during the morning and remained in bullish territory, confirming upward momentum. RSI climbed to 68 by 15:30 ET, entering overbought territory, suggesting the price could face near-term resistance. A divergence in RSI during the afternoon session hinted at a potential pullback, but the overall momentum remained intact.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased as the 15-minute Bollinger Bands widened from a narrow range of 0.01e-06 to a high of 0.04e-06. Price touched the upper band at 2.76e-06 during the late morning before consolidating around the midline. A contraction near 19:00 ET-1 preceded the breakout, suggesting a potential continuation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume showed mixed behavior with a sharp spike of 15,000+ at 19:30 ET-1, aligning with a breakout. However, volume during the morning rally remained moderate. The notional turnover reached its highest point in the final hour, confirming the price action. A divergence in volume was observed during the afternoon consolidation phase, suggesting buyer caution.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels on the 15-minute chart showed price testing 61.8% retracement at 2.73e-06 before surging higher. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement at 2.74e-06 acted as a temporary resistance. The 61.8% level is at 2.76e-06, coinciding with the recent high, suggesting a potential target for continuation.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest of a single-pattern, fixed-5-day exit strategy for ABTC over 2022–2025 reveals a problematic expectancy profile. With a hit-rate of less than 50%, an average winning trade of +14.6%, and average losers at -14.7%, the strategy exhibits negative expectancy, compounded by a maximum drawdown of -86%. These results underscore the need for a more robust framework, particularly in filtering trades using trend indicators or adding stop-loss rules. The current market setup suggests a higher probability of continuation, but the lack of a clear trend filter could expose such strategies to volatile swings like the 2.76e-06 high seen on 2025-10-13.