Market Overview for Vanar Chain/USDC (VANRYUSDC): Volatile Downtrend with Oversold Clues

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Summary
• Price opened at $0.0206 and closed at $0.0189 after a volatile 24-hour session marked by sharp declines and consolidation.
• Volume spiked to 1.2M at 21:00 ET but faded into the night, with total volume reaching ~10.9M and turnover ~$213,000.
• Strong bearish momentum seen in RSI and MACD divergence, suggesting potential for further downside unless buyers step in near 0.0186.

Vanar Chain/USDC (VANRYUSDC) opened at $0.0206 on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.0189 by the same time on October 14. The pair hit a high of $0.0209 and a low of $0.0184 during the session. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 10.9 million, with notional turnover at approximately $213,000. The price action reflected significant volatility, particularly during the early part of the session, as buyers and sellers contested key levels.

The structure of the candlestick pattern over 15-minute intervals showed a series of bearish engulfing patterns and a deep-bodied candle with a long lower wick at the session high, indicating rejection at higher prices. Notably, a key support level appears to be forming near $0.0186, where the price found some temporary buying interest. Resistance remains near $0.0208, a level that has been tested multiple times without successful breakthroughs. A doji candle near the 0.0206 level suggests indecision at that level.

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The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both trended downward, reinforcing the bearish bias. The price consistently stayed below both, with the 50-period line acting as a dynamic resistance. Looking at broader timeframes, the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages are likely in a bearish alignment, suggesting the trend may continue unless a strong reversal develops.

The RSI-14 indicator reached oversold territory near 30 multiple times, notably in the early morning hours, but price failed to rebound in a meaningful way. MACD showed bearish divergences with the price action, particularly in the late evening hours, where the histogram contracted while prices continued to fall. This suggests weakening momentum. Bollinger Bands highlighted periods of volatility expansion in the late afternoon and evening and a contraction near the close, potentially signaling a consolidation phase ahead.

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Fibonacci retracements from the high of $0.0209 down to the low of $0.0184 suggest critical levels to watch. The 61.8% retracement at $0.0194 is a potential resistance, while the 38.2% level at $0.0191 may offer a temporary floor. A break below $0.0186 would trigger a deeper correction toward the 61.8% daily retracement, which aligns with the key support level identified in the structure analysis.

Volume and turnover spiked early in the session, particularly at 17:15 ET and 18:00 ET, but declined steadily through the night. Notably, a divergence emerged between price and volume in the late hours: the price continued to fall while volume declined, signaling potential exhaustion among sellers. This may provide an opportunity for a short-term bounce if buyers re-enter the market near the 0.0186–0.0188 range. However, without confirmation of a breakout or significant volume, the bearish bias may persist.

Backtest Hypothesis
A backtesting strategy was applied using a simple RSI-14 < 30 entry rule, with an exit on the next day’s close. This approach seeks to capture potential rebounds in oversold conditions. Given the recent RSI behavior of VANRYUSDC—frequent dips below 30 but weak follow-through—this strategy may yield mixed results. If applied to this pair, the system would have triggered multiple entries, but the failure to close above key levels raises questions about the strength of each signal. Further refinement, such as incorporating volume filters or tightening stop-loss rules, could enhance robustness.