Market Overview for Vana/USDC (VANAUSDC) – 2025-10-11

• Vana/USDC fell sharply from $3.69 to $1.606, then consolidated toward $2.78.
• Strong bearish momentum seen midday, but buying pressure emerged after $2.70.
• Volatility peaked around 21:15 ET with 3.083 high and 1.606 low, while volume surged.
• Price found short-term support near $2.70–$2.75 and showed mixed bearish/bullish signals.
• RSI and MACD suggest overbought/oversold conditions shifted toward equilibrium.

Vana/USDC opened at $3.67 on October 10 at 12:00 ET and closed at $2.777 on October 11 at 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour high of $3.697 and a low of $1.201. Total volume traded was 33,723.81, and notional turnover reached $82,706. The pair experienced a sharp bearish drop followed by a consolidation phase.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a major bearish breakdown from $3.697 to $1.606, followed by a rebound and consolidation. Key support levels were identified around $2.70, $2.60, and $2.55. Resistance levels emerged at $2.77–$2.80 and $2.85–$2.90. A bearish engulfing pattern was observed at the top of the move, while the rebound displayed a bullish harami formation and a potential bullish divergence in the final hours. A doji near $2.782 at market close suggests indecision.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart indicates the price closed below the 20-period (2.82) and 50-period (2.85) moving averages, signaling short-term bearish momentum. However, the recent move upward suggests the price may be testing or approaching these averages from below. On a longer timeframe, the 50-period (2.90), 100-period (2.89), and 200-period (2.87) daily moving averages all sit above current levels, reinforcing a bearish bias. A potential reversal may occur if the price holds above the 50-period MA and reclaims $2.85.

MACD & RSI

MACD lines turned negative midday and showed bearish divergence, but a slight positive divergence emerged in the final 4–6 hours. RSI dropped to a bearish oversold range (~30) by 21:00 ET, then rebounded into neutral territory (~55–60) by close. This suggests short-term exhaustion and potential for a bounce, but without breaking above 65, overbought conditions are unlikely.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the sharp sell-off, with price dropping from above the upper band to near the lower band. In the final hours, the price moved within the band, with a closing near the midpoint. The width of the bands has narrowed slightly in the last hour, suggesting a potential consolidation period. If the price breaks above the upper band or below the lower band again, it could trigger renewed volatility.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the sharp drop, peaking with the 19:15 ET candle (2126.24 volume) and again with the 21:30 ET candle (7306.92 volume). These spikes confirmed the bearish move but were later followed by smaller-volume bullish reversals, suggesting a possible shift in sentiment. Notional turnover also spiked during the low, but remained elevated in the final hours of consolidation, indicating increased market participation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the key swing from $3.697 (high) to $1.606 (low), the price found short-term support at the 61.8% Fibonacci level ($2.71) and rebounded toward the 38.2% level ($2.79). On the daily chart, retracement levels from the recent daily high (~$3.083) to the low (~$2.469) align with current support/resistance levels. A break above the 2.79–2.80 zone could target the 38.2% retracement at $2.85–2.87.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the identified Fibonacci retracements and the recent bearish engulfing pattern, a backtest strategy could involve shorting near the 61.8% retracement level ($2.71) with a stop-loss placed above the 38.2% level ($2.79) and a target near the 50% Fibonacci level (~$2.55). This strategy would be triggered on a bearish close below $2.70 and would aim to capture the continuation of the downtrend if bearish momentum holds. Alternatively, a long entry could be considered near $2.70 with a stop-loss below $2.65 and a target near $2.80–2.85 if a bullish reversal is confirmed by a breakout above the 50-period MA.