Market Overview for Vana/USDC on 2025-10-04

• Vana/USDC declined 5.3% over 24 hours, closing near intraday lows amid waning momentum.
• Volatility expanded midday before stabilizing, with price hovering near the 20-period MA.
• RSI entered oversold territory, suggesting possible near-term support retesting.
• High-volume sell-offs occurred during Asian and European sessions, with a divergence in price vs. turnover.
• Key resistance appears near $4.185, while support may hold at $3.957–$4.008.

Vana/USDC opened at $4.014 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as $4.188 before closing at $3.996 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04. The pair posted a 24-hour low of $3.957 amid elevated volatility. Total notional turnover amounted to $7,271.23, with a volume of 4,873.77 tokens traded across 15-minute candles.

Structure and price action revealed a strong bearish bias, with a key bearish engulfing pattern forming around $4.188 to $4.155 and a long lower shadow doji at $4.115–$4.082. A bearish flag pattern is visible between $4.188 and $4.008, with consolidation forming at $4.008–$3.957. Support levels appear at $4.008, $3.967, and $3.957, with the latter providing a potential short-term floor.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart diverged significantly, with the 50-period MA acting as dynamic resistance near $4.130. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA appears to be a key level, currently at $4.105. The 200-period MA offers medium-term context, sitting at $4.170 and indicating bearish pressure.

The RSI approached oversold levels during the late trading session, dipping to 32.04 at 15:45 ET, signaling potential for a bounce or consolidation near $3.957. The MACD crossed below the signal line and remained negative, reinforcing bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands reflected a contraction earlier in the session, followed by an expansion as price dropped below the lower band near $3.957, suggesting increased volatility and possible short-term retests of key support.

Notional turnover saw a spike during Asian hours, with a large sell-off around $4.188–$4.155, followed by a quieter phase in the early Americas session. Price and turnover showed a bearish divergence at $4.118–$4.115, with turnover declining while price continued lower, suggesting weakening conviction. Volume was heaviest during the 19:15 ET and 22:30 ET candles, both in the Asian session, indicating active bear pressure.

Fibonacci retracements from the key $4.014 to $4.188 swing identified potential support and resistance zones. The 61.8% retracement at $4.088 coincided with a failed bounce, while the 38.2% retracement at $4.133 acted as a minor overhead level. On the daily timeframe, a $4.014–$4.188 swing shows the 61.8% retracement at $4.105, which appears to align with the 50-period MA.

Backtest Hypothesis
The suggested backtest strategy involves entering short positions on a bearish engulfing pattern formation, confirmed by a close below the 50-period MA and a RSI reading below 35. Stop-loss is set at the high of the engulfing pattern, and take-profit is set at the nearest Fibonacci support level (typically 61.8%). This approach would have triggered a short signal at $4.188 with a stop at $4.188 and a target near $4.088. The trade would have remained open through the session, closing near $3.996 with a potential 23.8% return before slippage and fees. The strategy appears to align with the observed price behavior and could be viable for a short-term bearish bias.