Market Overview for Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT)

Summary
• Price declined over 24 hours, closing below key support levels with increasing bearish momentum.
• High volume and turnover suggest significant market participation during key price moves.
• Bollinger Band contraction indicates potential for a directional breakout in the near term.

Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) opened at 0.0322 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0318 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 0.0327 and a low of 0.0309 during the 24-hour period. Total volume traded was approximately 5,389,949.3 and notional turnover amounted to roughly 169.33 units, reflecting a surge in activity around key support and resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a bearish trend with a key support level forming around 0.0316, where the price found several times over the last 24 hours. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared between 19:00 and 19:15 ET as price dropped sharply from 0.0319 to 0.0318. A doji formed at 00:15–00:30 ET, suggesting indecision after a sharp correction. The 0.0312 level now appears as a critical support, having been tested multiple times with mixed reactions.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period MA, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 50-period MA currently sits above 0.0318, suggesting the trend could continue lower. On the daily chart, the 50 and 200-day MAs are both bearish, with price under both and no immediate signs of a reversal. The 100-day MA is also in a downtrend, confirming the broader bearish structure.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned bearish in the latter half of the 24-hour period, with the histogram narrowing and negative bars expanding. This aligns with the declining price action. RSI has been in oversold territory for several hours, reaching as low as 28, but has not triggered a bounce. This divergence between RSI and price may indicate further downside before a potential rebound. Momentum is clearly on the bearish side, though a short-term rebound should not be ruled out.

Bollinger Bands

Price has been oscillating near the lower Bollinger Band for most of the day, particularly between 0.0316 and 0.0312. The bands have been contracting in the last few hours, indicating a potential breakout or breakdown is imminent. If the 0.0312 level breaks, price may test the 0.0309 level next. Conversely, a retest of the 0.0316 level with strong buying could initiate a short-term rebound.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during key support tests, particularly at 0.0316 and 0.0312. The highest volume candle occurred at 0.0311–0.031, reflecting a large amount of selling pressure. Turnover also spiked during the key price moves, with total turnover peaking at 5.39 million units. Price and turnover moved in tandem during the bearish phase, confirming the strength of the sell-off.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels suggest that the 0.0312 and 0.0316 levels are key retracement levels based on the 0.0327–0.0309 swing. A breakdown below 0.0312 would target 0.0309 as the next Fibonacci level. On the 15-minute chart, the 61.8% retracement at 0.0313 has been tested multiple times, with mixed results. The 38.2% level at 0.0316 appears to have held multiple times, suggesting it could serve as a temporary floor.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could leverage bearish divergence in the MACD and RSI as entry signals, particularly in a declining market like USUALUSDT. Price has formed several lower lows while the MACD has failed to make new lows, a classic bearish divergence. A backtest could use the 50-period moving average as a support level to define the exit point. Given the high volume and turnover around key support levels, position sizing should account for high volatility. A trailing stop-loss could be used to protect gains as the market tests Fibonacci levels. Testing this strategy from 1 January 2022 would provide insights into its viability in a bearish environment.