Market Overview for Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT)

Summary
• Price surged 23.8% from $0.0268 to $0.0328 over 24 hours, driven by sharp buying pressure.
• Momentum accelerated after 21:00 ET as RSI crossed 60, signaling rising bullish strength.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with Bollinger Bands widening by ~20% post 20:30 ET.

The 24-hour session for Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) saw a dramatic shift, opening at $0.0268 on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET and reaching a high of $0.0368 before consolidating near $0.0328 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-11-05. Total volume for the period was 330,224,973.55, with a notional turnover of $10,173,754. The asset moved decisively higher, with a clear breakout above key resistance levels that had been tested multiple times over the prior week.

Price action on the 15-minute chart shows a strong bullish bias, with multiple bullish engulfing patterns forming as buyers overpowered early morning sellers. The 20-period moving average crossed above the 50-period line just before the 21:00 ET candle, signaling a potential trend shift to the upside. By late morning, price was comfortably above both 20 and 50 MA lines, with MACD lines showing positive divergence and a growing histogram.

RSI-14, while not fully available for backtesting, reached a peak of 78 during the 21:15–21:30 ET window, suggesting overbought conditions. Price showed no immediate correction, however, with strong volume support observed in the $0.029–$0.0325 range. Bollinger Bands were in a clear expansion phase, with price testing the upper band multiple times but failing to show signs of topping.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the 2025-11-04 21:00 low to the 21:15 high showed price consolidating near the 61.8% retracement level at $0.0320–$0.0325, reinforcing its importance as a short-term target. Notional turnover and volume aligned well during the breakout phase, with no signs of divergence. This suggests strong conviction behind the move higher.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the current data and recent behavior of USUALUSDT, a potential backtesting strategy could be built around RSI-14 overbought signals (>70) and subsequent price behavior. If historical data were available for RSI-14 in the range of 2022–2025, one could measure the average pullback following such overbought events and assess whether USUALUSDT tends to correct or consolidate within a defined window. A custom threshold of 70–75 may be more appropriate for this asset given its recent volatility. If confirmed, this could help identify high-probability exit or entry points during similar overbought conditions in the future.