Market Overview: Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) - 24-Hour Price Action and Momentum Indicators

• USUALUSDT edged higher over 24 hours amid rising volume, with a late surge in buying momentum near the close.
• Price action suggests consolidation after a sharp drop early in the session followed by a sustained rebound.
• MACD and RSI show diverging momentum cues, with RSI hinting at potential overbought levels in the final hours.
• Bollinger Bands indicate a recent volatility expansion, with price staying above the midline for most of the day.
• Turnover surged in the final 6 hours, aligning with a 1.3% price rebound to 0.0332 as of 12:00 ET.

Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) opened at 0.0328 on 2025-10-19 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.0337, and a low of 0.0314, closing at 0.0332 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-20. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 152.4 million, with a notional turnover of approximately 5.11 million. Price action showed a bearish gap early in the session followed by a strong reversal in the morning hours.

The 15-minute chart reveals a key support level forming around 0.0325–0.0326, where the price found a temporary floor after a sharp decline in early hours. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged between 04:00 and 04:15 ET, signaling a potential reversal. The price then moved into a consolidation phase before surging in the late morning. A doji near 0.0331 at 14:45 ET hints at indecision among traders. A 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart crossed above the 50-period line around 07:00 ET, suggesting a short-term bullish bias.

The 20-period EMA on the 15-minute chart acted as a dynamic support line, with the price bouncing off it three times during the session. The 50-period moving average showed a slower, more stable trend, staying below the 20-period line for most of the day. On the daily chart, a 50-period moving average has been trending sideways, with the price recently staying above it, indicating a potential continuation of the short-term uptrend. A 200-period MA remains below the current level, showing that the longer-term trend remains bullish.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) peaked at over 65 in the final hours of the session, hinting at overbought conditions. However, this was not accompanied by a significant bearish reversal, suggesting buyers may still control the near-term direction. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a positive crossover around 06:00 ET, and the histogram remained above zero for much of the session. A divergence began forming in the final hour of the session, as the price made higher highs but the MACD did not.

Bollinger Bands widened significantly in the morning hours, with the price briefly testing the upper band near 0.0337 before retreating. This expansion suggests increasing volatility and a potential breakout scenario. Price spent most of the session inside the bands, suggesting a range-bound environment. A contraction in the bands was observed between 03:00 and 05:00 ET, signaling a potential false breakout attempt, as the price failed to hold above the upper band during that period.

Volume surged during the late morning hours, coinciding with a sharp rally that took the price from 0.0329 to 0.0334. The highest volume spike occurred at 13:45 ET, when the price closed at 0.0336. This volume surge suggests strong conviction from buyers at those levels. However, a divergence in volume and price was observed in the last two hours, as volume dipped while the price continued to rise slightly—suggesting caution for further gains. Notional turnover followed volume closely, confirming the price action during the rally but diverging slightly during the final phase.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the 15-minute swing from 0.0314 to 0.0336 revealed the 61.8% level at 0.0325, which coincided with the earlier support zone. The 38.2% retracement at 0.0329 acted as a minor resistance during the morning hours but was cleared with high volume. On the daily chart, the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the recent low to high is near 0.0341, which could serve as a potential target if the current trend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed technical structure and the formation of a bullish engulfing pattern near key Fibonacci support levels, a potential backtest hypothesis could focus on entries on breakouts above the 20-period EMA, confirmed by a volume surge and a closing price above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stops could be placed below the 61.8% level, with targets aligned to the 61.8% extension. A trailing stop could be applied during strong bullish momentum, as seen in the late morning surge. This strategy would aim to capture short-term directional bias while managing risk around potential divergences in momentum indicators.