Market Overview for Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) – 2026-01-03

Summary
• Price action shows consolidation around 0.0272 after a late-night rally and sharp morning pullback.
• Volume increased during key breakout attempts, but turnover failed to confirm sustained bullish momentum.
• RSI suggests moderate overbought conditions in the last 4 hours, while Bollinger Bands indicate tightening volatility.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the 0.0274 level, signaling potential near-term resistance.
• Fibonacci retracement levels suggest 0.0271 and 0.0269 as immediate support zones.

Market Overview

At 12:00 ET–1, Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) opened at 0.0272, rose to 0.0276, dipped to 0.0264, and closed at 0.0266 by 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 10,154,218.1, with notional turnover of 272,616.2.

Structure & Formations

The price action developed a key resistance cluster near 0.0274–0.0276 following a large-volume bullish candle at 22:45 ET, but a bearish engulfing pattern formed around 0.0274–0.0272 after 03:00 ET. . A bearish breakdown below 0.0271, supported by a doji at 05:45 ET, signals short-term vulnerability.

Moving Averages

On the 5-minute chart, the 20-period MA is slightly above the 50-period MA in a neutral alignment. The 50-period MA crossed above key resistance at 0.0273, suggesting potential short-term bearish pressure. Daily MA lines are less relevant at this stage due to limited daily data.

Momentum Indicators

RSI climbed into the overbought zone above 60 for a short period following the 0.0275–0.0276 rally, but has since dipped below 50. The MACD line crossed below the signal line at 08:30 ET, reinforcing bearish momentum.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands narrowed significantly from 03:00 to 07:00 ET, followed by a sharp expansion and breakdown below the lower band. Price remains below the 20-period moving average, indicating bearish bias.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during the 22:45–00:30 ET rally, with one candle (22:45) showing massive volume (4.08 million) and a 0.0271–0.0276 range. Notional turnover increased alongside price action, but diverged during the late morning selloff, suggesting weakening bullish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 0.0264–0.0276 swing, the 38.2% retracement is at 0.0268, and the 61.8% at 0.0271. The price has bounced off the 61.8% level twice and is likely to test support below that threshold.

The market appears to be in a short-term bearish phase with key support at 0.0269–0.0271. A close below 0.0265 may trigger a further 0.0260–0.0264 decline. Investors should remain cautious as volatility remains elevated and momentum indicators are bearish.