Market Overview for Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) - 2025-11-07

Summary
• Usual/Tether traded within a 0.0305–0.035 range, closing 1.6% higher at 0.0347.
• Price surged past 0.034, supported by rising volume and a bullish breakout.
• Momentum indicators suggest overbought conditions, hinting at potential near-term correction.

Market Overview

Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) opened at 0.0308 on 2025-11-06 at 12:00 ET, hit a high of 0.0350, and closed at 0.0347 by 12:00 ET the following day. The pair recorded a total volume of 69,439,844.64 and a turnover of 2,463.89 over the 24-hour period. The price action shows a strong upward bias, with multiple bullish reversals forming within the session.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels were observed near 0.0321 and 0.0315, both of which acted as strong floors during pullbacks. Resistance levels at 0.0340 and 0.0345 were decisively broken after sustained buying pressure. The candlestick patterns suggest bullish continuation, with a strong 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern forming at 0.0336–0.0341. A morning doji at 0.0335–0.0336 signaled a turning point in the session’s sentiment.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both bullish, with the 50SMA crossing above the 20SMA as a potential bullish signal. On the daily chart, the 50DMA crossed above the 100DMA, supporting a longer-term uptrend. The 200DMA remained below current levels, indicating that the pair is above its long-term trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed positive divergence through the day, with the line and signal line crossing into bullish territory. The RSI-14 was above 70 for much of the session, signaling overbought conditions and increasing the likelihood of a pullback. However, the pair continued higher despite the RSI warning, suggesting strong conviction in the uptrend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the late afternoon, with the Bollinger Band width increasing from 0.0007 to 0.0013. Price remained above the upper band for most of the session, indicating strong bullish momentum. The expansion suggests a potential consolidation phase ahead.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply after 12:00 ET on 2025-11-07, confirming the breakout above key resistance levels. The notional turnover also increased, reaching a peak of $73.79 at 16:30 ET, with no signs of divergence. The high volume-to-price alignment supports the bullish trend and implies strong market participation.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fib level of the previous 0.0305–0.0350 move was at 0.0328, which was tested and rejected multiple times during the session. The 38.2% level at 0.0335 became a strong support and later turned into resistance. On the daily chart, the 50% Fib level of the recent swing is at 0.03425, which could be a key area for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The RSI-14 strategy described earlier could be applied to USUALUSDT with adjustments for its unique behavior. Given its recent overbought readings and strong volume confirmation, RSI > 70 could signal a high-probability entry for short-term traders. However, due to the pair’s tendency to stay in overbought territory, the exit rule (RSI < 70) may result in early closures. A refinement could include holding through minor pullbacks while using Bollinger Bands or volume spikes as confirmation of continuation.