Market Overview for Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) on 2025-10-12

• Price declined from 0.0333 to 0.0312, showing bearish momentum and oversold RSI conditions.
• Volatility expanded with wide Bollinger Bands, and volume surged during the downward move.
• Key support at 0.0305-0.031 and resistance at 0.0327-0.0333 formed a clear range-bound pattern.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged during early ET hours, confirming the trend shift.
• 50-period MA on 15-min chart crossed below 20-period MA, signaling a short-term bearish bias.

Opening Narrative

Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) opened at 0.0326 (12:00 ET − 1), reached a high of 0.0333, fell to a low of 0.0301, and closed at 0.0312 (12:00 ET). Total volume across the 24-hour period was 69.16 million, with a notional turnover of approximately $2.18 million.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern revealed a bearish bias, with a sharp decline from 0.0333 to 0.0301, forming a large bearish engulfing pattern. Key support levels include 0.0305–0.031 and 0.0295–0.0298, with the 0.0305 level showing increased buying pressure during the final hours. Resistance is clustered at 0.0327–0.0333 and 0.0335–0.034, where the price struggled to hold above in the early hours. A doji formed around 0.0301 during the overnight session, suggesting potential indecision and a possible reversal.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period MA, forming a bearish "death cross." MACD remained negative throughout most of the session, with bearish divergences noted after 04:00 ET. RSI hit oversold territory below 30 for several hours, indicating exhaustion in the downward move and potential for a rebound. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) remain in a bearish alignment, reinforcing the short-to-mid-term bearish outlook.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the drop from 0.0333 to 0.0301, reflecting heightened volatility. Price remained below the lower band for much of the session, with the strongest contraction observed between 02:00 and 04:00 ET. This contraction could foreshadow a breakout or reversal, especially as RSI entered oversold territory.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during the decline, with the largest 15-minute volume recorded at 4.75 million (0.0313–0.0329). Turnover increased in tandem, with a notable divergence observed in the last few hours: while volume declined after 08:00 ET, price continued to move lower, suggesting a lack of conviction in the bearish move. This could indicate exhaustion in the short term and a potential bounce.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key 15-minute swing from 0.0333 to 0.0301, the 38.2% retracement at 0.0317 and 61.8% at 0.0324 align with recent resistance levels. On the daily chart, retracement levels from the broader move suggest a possible bounce from 0.0305–0.031 before a test of 0.0325–0.0327.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions when price retraces to the 38.2% or 61.8% Fibonacci levels, paired with a bullish divergence in the RSI and a volume expansion. A stop-loss could be placed below the most recent support at 0.0305, with a target aligned to 0.0324–0.0327. This setup would aim to capture the potential reversal from oversold conditions, supported by the bearish exhaustion seen in the latter part of the session.

Forward Outlook and Risk Consideration

The market may consolidate near 0.0305–0.031 in the short term, with a potential rebound into the 0.0324–0.0327 range if RSI and volume confirm a reversal. However, a breakdown below 0.0298 could extend the bearish trend toward 0.0285–0.029. Investors should monitor for a bullish divergence in MACD and RSI as key reversal triggers.