Market Overview: Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) on 2025-10-11

• Price dropped sharply from $0.0456 to $0.0320 amid high-volume bearish momentum and large range candles.
• Strong bearish momentum confirmed by RSI divergence and MACD bearish crossover.
• Bollinger Bands show extreme volatility expansion, with price well below the 20-period lower band.
• Volume spikes aligned with price lows suggest distribution and possible capitulation.
• Fibonacci retracement levels suggest 0.0324 and 0.0330 as potential near-term support/resistance.

Opening Summary

Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) opened at $0.0451 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.0328 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour period saw a high of $0.0456, a low of $0.0320, and total volume of 290,663,935.9 units, with a notional turnover of $9,777,979.47. The pair appears to have reached a critical low after a sustained bearish phase.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the last 24 hours revealed a sharp bearish trend, with multiple large-range bearish candles forming after a critical breakdown below the $0.0400 level. The price action from $0.0456 to $0.0320 suggests a continuation of bearish momentum, with a long lower wick appearing at $0.0393–$0.0342 indicating rejection at that level. A bearish engulfing pattern was observed during the drop from $0.0423 to $0.0342, and a doji formed near $0.0306, suggesting indecision and possible short-term consolidation. Key support levels are forming at $0.0300 and $0.0324, with resistance at $0.0342 and $0.0360.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are significantly above the current price, confirming a strong bearish bias in the short term. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed below the 200-period MA, indicating a bearish trend confirmation. The 100-period MA is also below the 50-period, reinforcing the bearish tilt.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned bearish after crossing below the signal line at the beginning of the downtrend, confirming the bearish momentum. The RSI dropped below 30 early in the session, indicating oversold conditions, but it failed to produce a strong bullish divergence, suggesting sellers are still in control. A bearish RSI divergence was observed during the bounce from $0.0306 to $0.0328, hinting at potential further weakness if sellers reemerge.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly as the price moved toward the lower band, with volatility reaching a 24-hour peak around the $0.0320 level. The price remains well below the 20-period Bollinger Band, suggesting a high degree of bearish pressure. A potential bounce from the lower band may be coming into play, but with RSI in oversold territory and no bearish exhaustion signs, a short-term pullback should be treated cautiously.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sharp decline from $0.0423 to $0.0306, confirming the bearish breakout. The largest single candle during this decline had a volume of 35,750,986 units, which is significantly higher than the typical hourly average. Turnover also increased sharply during this period, suggesting strong distribution and possible capitulation. However, a divergence in volume and price during the $0.0306–$0.0328 bounce suggests buyers are hesitant to commit at lower levels.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 24-hour move from $0.0456 to $0.0320, the 38.2% retracement level is at $0.0372, and the 61.8% level is at $0.0344. These levels are critical for short-term buyers to watch, as a rebound above $0.0344 could signal a retracement. However, given the bearish RSI and MACD, a failure to hold above these levels could mean a retest of the $0.0300–$0.0306 support zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy proposes a mean-reversion approach based on RSI and Bollinger Band squeeze signals. When RSI enters oversold territory and the Bollinger Bands contract for three consecutive 15-minute candles, the strategy triggers a long entry, with a stop loss placed below the 20-period MA. Over the last 24 hours, this condition was met once during the bounce from $0.0306 to $0.0328, but the price failed to close above the 20-period MA, leading to an early exit. The strategy’s success in this period would have captured a modest retracement but failed to capture a strong reversal. In this context, a revised approach incorporating a stricter RSI divergence filter and higher time frame confirmation may be more effective.