Market Overview for Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) — 2025-10-10

• Price rose from 0.0449 to 0.049 before retracing sharply near session close.
• Sharp bearish reversal observed during last 6 hours with a large-volume breakdown under 0.0473.
• Volatility surged and then compressed as price fell below key support at 0.0473.
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought conditions before reversal, suggesting momentum exhaustion.
• Turnover spiked during the breakdown, confirming bearish sentiment but leaving a potential short-term trap.

Market Performance Summary

The USUALUSDT pair opened at 0.047 on 2025-10-09 at 16:00 ET and reached a high of 0.0496 before closing at 0.0449 at 12:00 ET the following day. Total volume traded over the 24-hour window was 82,682,319.1 units, with a notional turnover of approximately 3,691,468 USDT. The session featured a sharp rally and a bearish breakdown in the final hours, with increased volume confirming bearish conviction.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a key bullish structure during the early morning hours (ET), with a series of higher highs and higher lows pushing above 0.0475. A 15-minute engulfing candle marked the top at 0.0496, followed by a large bearish reversal candle under 0.0473. A doji near 0.0473 signaled indecision, but a larger bearish candle with high volume confirmed the breakdown. A key support zone appears at 0.0464, which was tested and broken during the session close.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA briefly crossed above the 50-period MA in the morning, confirming the bullish trend. However, the 50-period MA failed to hold above 0.0473 during the breakdown, suggesting a loss of momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 200-period MA, indicating a longer-term bearish bias, though the 100-period MA has not crossed below either.

MACD showed a bullish divergence in the early part of the session but reversed to bearish territory after 09:00 ET. The RSI reached overbought levels above 70 during the rally but rapidly cooled to oversold conditions by the end of the session, signaling a strong bearish move.

Volatility and Volume Signals

Bollinger Bands expanded during the morning rally, with price reaching the upper band at 0.0496 before collapsing. The lower band was then breached during the final 3 hours of the session, confirming increased volatility and bearish momentum.

Volume surged during the bearish breakdown, with the largest volume candle appearing at 0.0473, confirming the breakdown level. Notional turnover also spiked during the move below 0.0473, aligning with bearish price action.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

The 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels were key during the 15-minute chart swings. The 61.8% level at 0.0473 was decisively broken in the final hours, leading to a further fall to 0.0464. On the daily chart, the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels from the recent high at 0.0496 appear at 0.0478 and 0.0462, respectively, suggesting potential support/resistance levels for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve shorting the pair on a confirmed breakdown of the 61.8% Fibonacci level (0.0473), with a stop-loss above the 38.2% retracement at 0.0478 and a target at the 50% Fibonacci level at 0.0464. This strategy would align with the observed bearish reversal patterns and momentum exhaustion seen in RSI and MACD. A trailing stop could be used after reaching the initial target to capture further downside potential.