Market Overview for Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) on 2025-10-06

• Price declined to 0.0518 before rebounding, with low volume consolidation in the final hour.
• RSI and MACD signaled oversold conditions, suggesting potential for short-term bounce.
• Volatility expanded during the selloff, with price testing lower Bollinger Band support.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged near 0.0522–0.0524 after 03:00 ET.
• Total volume exceeded 12.4M, with turnover above $668,000, reflecting increased activity in the 14:00–16:00 ET window.

Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) opened at 0.0540 on 2025-10-05 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0526 on 2025-10-06 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour high of 0.0553 and a low of 0.0512. Total volume for the period was 12.4 million, with a notional turnover of approximately $668,000.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart showed a bearish breakdown from 0.0542–0.0543 to 0.0512–0.0513, forming a clear descending triangle pattern. A key support level emerged around 0.0521–0.0524, where the price consolidated multiple times and reversed higher in a bullish engulfing pattern. A doji formed near 0.0523, suggesting indecision and potential reversal. Resistance levels at 0.0530–0.0535 and 0.0542–0.0545 appear to be key overhead barriers to watch.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were bearishly aligned, with the price trading below both. This suggests continued short-term bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average crossed below the 100- and 200-period lines in a death cross formation, indicating a stronger bearish bias over the longer term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned positive late in the session after a prolonged bearish crossover, signaling a potential short-term reversal in momentum. RSI reached oversold territory at 28, suggesting a bounce could be imminent. However, RSI remains below 50, indicating the bearish tone is still intact.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the bearish phase, with price dropping to the lower Bollinger Band at 0.0512. The bands had been in a contraction phase earlier in the day, indicating a potential breakout was likely. Price has since found support within the band and may test the upper boundary again in the coming hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked between 14:00–16:00 ET as the price surged from 0.0526 to 0.0553, with turnover confirming the price increase. However, volume during the selloff in the early session was relatively low, suggesting a lack of conviction in the bearish move. The final hour saw a consolidation in volume and price, indicating possible exhaustion of both sides.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the recent 15-minute swing from 0.0553 to 0.0512, key retracement levels at 0.0533 (38.2%) and 0.0526 (61.8%) were tested. Price found support near 0.0526, which aligns with the 61.8% level, suggesting this is a probable short-term floor. A break above 0.0530 could signal further buying interest.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves identifying a bullish engulfing pattern near key support levels (such as 0.0522–0.0524) combined with RSI in oversold territory and increasing volume. A long entry could be triggered at the open of the candle following the pattern, with a stop loss placed below the low of the engulfing pattern and a take profit target at the next resistance level (0.0530–0.0535). This approach could be backtested across similar 15-minute price cycles to evaluate its robustness.