Market Overview for Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) on 2025-09-26

• Price declined from 0.0525 to 0.0503 over 24 hours amid broad bearish momentum.
• Key support levels formed around 0.0505–0.0508, with rejection visible in late-night consolidation.
• Volatility remained moderate, with Bollinger Bands narrowing as momentum faded.
• Volume spiked during early dip but diverged from price in the final 6 hours.
• RSI signaled oversold territory by end of day, hinting at possible short-term bounce.

The Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) pair opened at 0.0524 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.0525 and a low of 0.0493 before closing at 0.0503 on 2025-09-26 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour notional volume amounted to 135,685,243.5, with total turnover at 6,827.7 USDT. A bearish trend unfolded, marked by a sharp midday decline followed by consolidation in the lower end of the range.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels emerged at 0.0505 and 0.0508, with several candles forming bullish reversals (e.g., hammers and doji) after the 0.0493 low. A bearish engulfing pattern formed early in the decline, followed by a series of long lower shadows suggesting buying interest. Resistance remained at 0.0510–0.0515, with price frequently testing but failing to break above this range.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed bearishly, indicating bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed below the 100-period and 200-period MA, reinforcing a long-term bearish bias. Price remains below all three, with a potential retest of 0.0510–0.0513 likely.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram turned negative throughout the 24-hour period, with a bearish crossover signaling weak momentum. RSI dropped below 30 in the final hours, reaching 28.5 by the close, indicating oversold conditions. However, this did not trigger a strong bounce, suggesting caution in interpreting overbought/oversold levels in isolation.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility contracted slightly in the late evening as price settled near the lower band, with a narrow range of 0.0505–0.0509. This suggests a period of consolidation and potential setup for a reversal or continuation. Price has not breached the upper band in 24 hours and remains in a bearish channel.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early decline, peaking at 2.8 million at 17:30 ET, but sharply dropped after 22:00 ET despite continued downward movement. This divergence suggests waning conviction among sellers. Notional turnover remained steady, but the decline lacked confirmation in volume after 22:30 ET.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 0.0524–0.0493 swing, key levels include 0.0507 (38.2%) and 0.0503 (61.8%). Price hovered around 0.0503 for much of the day, suggesting it may serve as a short-term support. A break below this level could extend the decline toward 0.0489 (78.6%).

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed oversold RSI reading and repeated rejection at 0.0505–0.0508, a potential backtest strategy might look to go long on a bullish reversal candle (e.g., a hammer or bullish engulfing pattern) forming at or near 0.0503–0.0507. A tight stop-loss would be placed below 0.0502 to manage risk, with a target set at 0.0510–0.0513. This approach aligns with the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement and the upper edge of the Bollinger Band, suggesting a reasonable risk-reward setup if volatility begins to expand.