Market Overview for Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) as of 2025-09-23

• The 24-hour price for USUALUSDT drifted in a tight range, with a high of 0.0572 and a low of 0.0548.
• A consolidation pattern is forming near key psychological levels with no clear breakout.
• Volatility remains muted, but volume spiked during late-night price rebound attempts.
• RSI shows no overbought or oversold conditions, suggesting a neutral market bias.
• Bollinger Bands show a slight contraction suggesting potential for a breakout in the near term.

Opening at 0.0560 on 2025-09-22 12:00 ET, Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) closed at 0.0566 the following day with a high of 0.0572 and a low of 0.0548. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 86,236,039.1 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $4,875,536. The pair appears to be in a consolidation phase, with price hovering between key psychological levels without a clear directional bias.

Structure and price formations over the past 24 hours suggest a developing sideways range, with price frequently testing levels around 0.0560 and 0.0570. Several small bullish and bearish engulfing patterns were observed, but none were strong enough to confirm a breakout. A bearish doji appeared at 0.0566 during the early morning hours, which may indicate hesitation among buyers. Support appears to be forming around 0.0560–0.0564, while resistance levels are clustering near 0.0570 and 0.0572.

The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are closely aligned, indicating no strong short-term trend. Over the daily chart, the 50- and 200-day moving averages are converging, suggesting the market is approaching a potential inflection point. RSI remains in neutral territory, with values fluctuating between 45 and 58, indicating balanced buying and selling pressure. MACD shows a weak bullish bias, with the histogram expanding slightly in the positive territory after late-night price rebound attempts.

Bollinger Bands are currently narrowing, suggesting decreasing volatility and a potential breakout in the near term. The price has remained within the band range but has spent significant time near the upper band during the early hours of the trading day, hinting at bullish activity. Volume data suggests a moderate increase in activity during the overnight hours, especially between 00:00 and 04:00 ET, as price tested resistance around 0.0570 and 0.0572.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the 24-hour swing show that 0.0564 and 0.0568 correspond closely to the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels, respectively. These levels have been tested multiple times during the past day, with 0.0564 acting as a key support. A move above 0.0570 could see the price targeting the 78.6% retracement level at 0.0574, while a break below 0.0564 could drag the price down to 0.0556–0.0558.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy involves using a combination of Fibonacci retracement and MACD crossover signals on the 15-minute chart to identify potential breakout opportunities. The strategy triggers a long position when the MACD line crosses above the signal line and the price is at or near a 38.2% or 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Short positions are triggered on a bearish MACD crossover near key resistance levels. Historical data from the past 24 hours suggests that the strategy could have captured the overnight rebound but may have produced false signals during consolidation. Risk management is essential, as the market remains range-bound with no clear trend.

Over the next 24 hours, USUALUSDT may continue to consolidate between 0.0560 and 0.0572. A breakout above 0.0572 or a breakdown below 0.0560 could signal a shift in momentum, but investors should remain cautious of false breakouts due to the current low volatility.