Market Overview for Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) – 2025-09-17

• Price surged 6.5% in 24 hours, with a sharp rally from 0.0641 to 0.0665 before consolidating.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the overnight session, with a high of 0.0677 and a low of 0.0643.
• Volume spiked above 600,000 on key uplegs, confirming strength in the bullish breakout.
• RSI shows overbought conditions near 70, suggesting short-term profit-taking risks.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the 04:00–08:00 ET window, reflecting increased uncertainty.

Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) opened at 0.0641 at 12:00 ET − 1 and closed at 0.0649 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.0677 and a low of 0.0635. Total volume amounted to 100.94M and notional turnover stood at 6.55 BTC-equivalent, reflecting heightened interest.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute OHLC data reveals a distinct breakout pattern during the early morning hours, with the price surging past 0.0655 and finding temporary resistance at 0.0677. A notable bullish engulfing pattern appears at 02:30–03:00 ET, confirming the shift in sentiment. A shooting star at 02:45 ET and a bearish harami at 04:45 ET signal short-term profit-taking and consolidation. Key support levels appear to be forming at 0.0645–0.0647, with a critical resistance at 0.0669 from the 03:00 ET candle.

Moving Averages

A 20-period EMA on the 15-minute chart crossed above the 50-period EMA around 02:00 ET, reinforcing the bullish momentum. The 50-period daily MA is currently at 0.0643, indicating the asset remains in a strong uptrend. The 200-period daily MA at 0.0639 acts as a psychological floor, but recent buying has pushed price well above it.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the zero line at 01:45 ET and showed a positive divergence with the price, suggesting sustained momentum. The RSI climbed into overbought territory (above 70) at 03:00–05:00 ET, hinting at potential short-term pullbacks. However, RSI remains above 60, indicating ongoing bullish bias.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded dramatically between 02:30 and 05:30 ET, with the Bollinger Band width increasing by ~15%. The price spent most of that time outside the upper band, confirming a breakout. A narrowing of the bands is expected as the price consolidates around 0.0649, potentially signaling a continuation move or a brief reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged above 2.3M in the 02:30–03:30 ET window, coinciding with the breakout above 0.0669. Turnover also increased, with over 15.8 BTC-equivalent transacted during that period. A volume divergence appears at 05:00 ET, with price declining slightly while volume remains above average, suggesting short-covering and mixed sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the overnight swing from 0.0641 to 0.0677, key levels include 38.2% (0.0663) and 61.8% (0.0657). The price paused at 0.0669, which is slightly above the 61.8% level, before retracting slightly. A retest of the 50% level (~0.0659) is expected in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

Applying a breakout and pullback strategy using 15-minute data from the last 24 hours, one could consider entries on a close above the 20-period EMA following a consolidation period within the Bollinger Bands. A stop-loss could be placed just below a key support level (~0.0645), with a take-profit target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level (~0.0657). A successful backtest would require confirmation via bullish divergence in MACD and RSI above 50, as observed from 02:30–04:00 ET.