Market Overview: USDTMXN on 2025-10-10

• USDTMXN traded in a narrow range before a sharp rally toward the close.
• Key resistance at 18.43–18.44 with a breakout above confirming bullish momentum.
• Volume surged in the final 45 minutes, signaling potential trend continuation.
• MACD and RSI show bullish momentum but remain within normal bounds.
• Bollinger Bands show low volatility earlier, expanding as price surged.

Tether/Mexican Peso (USDTMXN) opened at 18.42 on 2025-10-09 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 18.59 and a low of 18.40 before closing at 18.58 on 2025-10-10 12:00 ET. Total traded volume for the 24-hour period was 452,634.0 units, with a notional turnover of approximately 8,368,524 MXN.

Structure & Formations

Price remained within a tight range between 18.41 and 18.44 for most of the session before a strong upward move in the afternoon hours, culminating in a high of 18.59. A bullish breakout above the 18.44 resistance level was confirmed by a strong green candle on the 15-minute chart. A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 18.50–18.52, suggesting increased buying pressure. A minor support at 18.41 held early in the session, but volume increased significantly as price moved higher, reducing the likelihood of immediate reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were closely aligned around 18.42–18.43, showing a sideways bias before the late surge. The price crossed above both moving averages as the bullish move unfolded. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is currently at 18.43, while the 200-period MA is at 18.41. The price is above both, indicating a potential continuation of the bullish trend.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned positive in the final 90 minutes of the session, with a bullish crossover and increasing histogram length, signaling rising momentum. RSI climbed from 48 to 65, staying well within the healthy range and not indicating overbought conditions. This suggests that the upward move remains strong and is not yet showing signs of fatigue.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained low for most of the session, with price bouncing between the midline and the lower band. However, a sharp increase in volatility occurred in the final 45 minutes as price surged above the upper Bollinger Band, reaching the session high of 18.59. This expansion indicates a potential breakout or trend reversal, especially given the strong volume accompanying the move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained moderate throughout most of the session but spiked in the final 90 minutes, with a peak around 18:45 and 19:00 ET. The largest trade occurred at 19:00 ET, with 123,014 MXN traded in one candle. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, with the largest single-candle turnover reaching 2.27 million MXN. The increase in volume and turnover aligns with the price move, suggesting strong confirmation of the bullish trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 18.41 to 18.59, the 38.2% level is at 18.50 and the 61.8% level is at 18.55. Price briefly tested the 38.2% level before continuing higher, confirming the strength of the trend. On the daily chart, the key retracement levels from a prior range-bound move remain relevant for identifying potential consolidation or reversal zones.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described in the input emphasizes a breakout-based approach, targeting sharp upward moves following a period of consolidation. Given the observed behavior in USDTMXN, where price remained within a defined range before breaking out with strong volume and momentum, this strategy could be effective. A hypothetical trade entry at the close of the breakout candle (18.44) would align with the strategy’s parameters. The move to 18.59 represents a favorable risk-reward profile, suggesting the strategy may perform well on similar setups.