Market Overview for USDC/Zloty (USDCPLN): 24-Hour Price Action and Technical Trends

• Price opened at 3.603 and closed at 3.582, down 0.64% in 24 hours with a low of 3.58.
• Notable volatility spikes and volume surges occurred after 19:00 ET, coinciding with sharp price corrections.
• RSI remained in oversold territory for most of the session, indicating potential for a short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands showed mild expansion, suggesting increased short-term volatility.
• A bullish engulfing pattern appeared around 07:00 ET, but failed to hold.

At 12:00 ET on September 16, 2025, the USDC/Zloty pair (USDCPLN) closed at 3.582, down from the open of 3.603 at 12:00 ET on September 15. The 24-hour session saw a high of 3.607 and a low of 3.58, with a total trading volume of 599,781 units and a notional turnover of approximately 2,148,000 PLN. The price action reflected a bearish bias, particularly in the late evening and overnight hours.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a key resistance zone between 3.601–3.607, which failed to hold after several tests, particularly during the 18:00–19:00 ET window. A bearish breakdown below 3.600 occurred after 18:15 ET, followed by a sharp decline into the 3.58–3.59 range by early morning. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 18:15 ET, confirming downward momentum. A doji appeared at 03:45 ET, indicating indecision, but the lack of follow-through suggested bearish control.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 15-minute chart saw the 20-period moving average below the 50-period MA, reinforcing the bearish tone. The 50-period MA crossed below the 200-period MA on the daily chart, a potential death cross signal. MACD remained bearish with a negative divergence in the late session, while the RSI lingered in oversold territory, suggesting a potential short-term bounce.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded after 18:00 ET as the price moved below the lower Bollinger Band, signaling a volatility breakout to the downside. The width of the bands increased during the 19:00–20:00 ET window, indicating heightened uncertainty. Price remained within the bands for most of the session, suggesting the move was contained, but the break below 3.600 marked a structural shift.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked at key turning points: 18:15 ET (27,461 units) and 19:45 ET (18,960 units), confirming bearish momentum during price declines. Notional turnover also surged during these periods, aligning with price action. A bearish divergence occurred between volume and price near 02:30 ET, suggesting waning seller conviction. However, the continued volume support below key levels reinforced the bearish bias.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels on the 15-minute chart highlighted the 61.8% level at 3.593 as a key area of resistance. The price failed to hold this level and continued its decline into the 3.58–3.59 range. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level at 3.587 acted as a short-term support, which held briefly before breaking again. These levels could provide entry or stop-loss reference points for short-term traders.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on a short bias triggered by a bearish engulfing pattern followed by a break below a key Fibonacci retracement (e.g., 3.593), confirmed by volume surges. Entries could be placed on the close of a 15-minute candle breaking below 3.593, with stops above the 3.601 resistance level and a target at the 3.58–3.59 support zone. RSI readings in the 30s and MACD bearish crossovers would enhance the signal. This approach may be particularly effective in a consolidating or trending bear market, but requires careful risk management due to high volatility and potential false breakouts.